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<p>Climate change increasingly impacts ecosystems, economies, and human livelihoods, particularly in developing countries with limited capacity to adapt. Identifying factors that could weaken climate change adaptation readiness is therefore crucial. This study examines the relationship between militarization and climate change adaptation readiness in 150 countries from 1995 to 2020 using a cross‑national time‑series approach. Building on and expanding state capture theory, it investigates how militarization—reflected in military expenditure, personnel, and weaponry—diverts fiscal resources and institutional priorities away from climate change adaptation, especially in countries with weaker governance and constrained budgets. The results show that militarization significantly undermines adaptation readiness, particularly in its economic and social dimensions, with effects that persist in the short and medium term but diminish over time. The negative impact is strongest in developing countries due to governance vulnerabilities and limited fiscal space. The study extends state capture theory to environmental governance and provides empirical evidence for designing fiscal safeguards and accountability mechanisms to protect climate change adaptation funding in resource‑constrained countries.</p>

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Defending the wrong front: militarization’s impact on adaptation to climate change in 150 countries (1995–2020)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月11日

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  • Jeremy Ko,
  • Axel Michaelowa

摘要

Climate change increasingly impacts ecosystems, economies, and human livelihoods, particularly in developing countries with limited capacity to adapt. Identifying factors that could weaken climate change adaptation readiness is therefore crucial. This study examines the relationship between militarization and climate change adaptation readiness in 150 countries from 1995 to 2020 using a cross‑national time‑series approach. Building on and expanding state capture theory, it investigates how militarization—reflected in military expenditure, personnel, and weaponry—diverts fiscal resources and institutional priorities away from climate change adaptation, especially in countries with weaker governance and constrained budgets. The results show that militarization significantly undermines adaptation readiness, particularly in its economic and social dimensions, with effects that persist in the short and medium term but diminish over time. The negative impact is strongest in developing countries due to governance vulnerabilities and limited fiscal space. The study extends state capture theory to environmental governance and provides empirical evidence for designing fiscal safeguards and accountability mechanisms to protect climate change adaptation funding in resource‑constrained countries.