Agriculture in the face of climate change and socio-economic prospects to 2050 in Senegal
摘要
This article focuses on agriculture in the face of climate change and the socio-economic outlook to 2050. We used daily observation data from simulations of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and simulations of the AGMIP (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project) agro-climatic model to characterise and analyse agriculture, as well as socio-economics, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using the TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis Model for Multidimensional Impact Assessment) climate-economic model. The results show that by 2050, the start of the agricultural seasons will be delayed, from 15 June (9 days) for RCP4.5 / 27 June (18 days) for RCP8.5 in the south to 5 August (3 days) RCP4.5 / 15 August (6 days) RCP8.5 in the north. Thus, on average for both scenarios, the length of the season would decrease more rapidly in the south, with 18 days compared with 6 days in the north. Rainfall would decrease to 120 mm, but the trend shows an intensification of long, medium or short dry sequences and wet extremes. Minimum and maximum temperatures will rise by up to 1.5