Scholarlink

Context <p>Under global climate change and intensified human activities, the Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) and Yellow River Basin (YRB) face escalating challenges to ecosystem services (ESs), including water scarcity and biodiversity loss. Understanding ES dynamics is essential for sustainable landscape management.</p> Objectives <p>This study aimed to (1) predict spatiotemporal changes in land cover and ESs from 2030 to 2100 under SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, and (2) quantify pixel-scale ES trade-offs/synergies and their driving factors.</p> Methods <p>An integrated SSP–LUH2–PLUS–InVEST/CS framework was developed, combining climate scenarios, land use simulations, and ES assessments. The framework was applied to both basins to project future land cover changes and quantify ES responses under varying radiative forcing scenarios.</p> Results <p>Forests expanded notably in the YZRB under SSP1–2.6 and SSP3–7.0, largely replacing grasslands and croplands, whereas grasslands remained in the YRB. Water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ) improved the most under SSP1–2.6, whereas carbon sequestration (CS) peaked under SSP5–8.5. Synergies prevailed among WY–SC, CS–SC, and SC–HQ across all scenarios, whereas CS–HQ shifts to trade-offs under SSP5–8.5. ES interactions were scenario-dependent, with precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, land cover, and elevation as key drivers, shifting from land use-driven under low emissions to climate-driven under high emissions.</p> Conclusions <p>Future ES management in the YZRB and YRB should adopt scenario-specific strategies, optimizing land use under low-emission pathways and applying climate-adaptive interventions under high-emission scenarios to sustain ES provision.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Unraveling climate–land cover interactions: how SSP–RCP scenarios drive ecosystem service trade-offs in contrasting Yangtze and Yellow River Basins, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月19日

查看全文
  • Yuanhe Yu,
  • Shupeng Gao,
  • Jinliang Wang,
  • Qingping Cheng,
  • Huan Deng,
  • Yuzhen Shen

摘要

Context

Under global climate change and intensified human activities, the Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) and Yellow River Basin (YRB) face escalating challenges to ecosystem services (ESs), including water scarcity and biodiversity loss. Understanding ES dynamics is essential for sustainable landscape management.

Objectives

This study aimed to (1) predict spatiotemporal changes in land cover and ESs from 2030 to 2100 under SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, and (2) quantify pixel-scale ES trade-offs/synergies and their driving factors.

Methods

An integrated SSP–LUH2–PLUS–InVEST/CS framework was developed, combining climate scenarios, land use simulations, and ES assessments. The framework was applied to both basins to project future land cover changes and quantify ES responses under varying radiative forcing scenarios.

Results

Forests expanded notably in the YZRB under SSP1–2.6 and SSP3–7.0, largely replacing grasslands and croplands, whereas grasslands remained in the YRB. Water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ) improved the most under SSP1–2.6, whereas carbon sequestration (CS) peaked under SSP5–8.5. Synergies prevailed among WY–SC, CS–SC, and SC–HQ across all scenarios, whereas CS–HQ shifts to trade-offs under SSP5–8.5. ES interactions were scenario-dependent, with precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, land cover, and elevation as key drivers, shifting from land use-driven under low emissions to climate-driven under high emissions.

Conclusions

Future ES management in the YZRB and YRB should adopt scenario-specific strategies, optimizing land use under low-emission pathways and applying climate-adaptive interventions under high-emission scenarios to sustain ES provision.