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<p>Three uncertainty propagation methods were evaluated for the radiochronometry of the long-lived parent–daughter pair <sup>234</sup>U-<sup>23</sup><sup>0</sup>Th for nuclear forensics applications. The methods considered were: (1) explicit analytical uncertainty propagation formulas derived by Pommé et al<i>.</i>; (2) linear uncertainty propagation using sensitivity coefficients generated with the GUM Workbench, in accordance with the <i>Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement</i>; and (3) the Kragten method, which numerically estimates sensitivity coefficients by varying the input parameters of the nuclear dating equation. All three approaches yielded closely consistent results, thereby validating the analytical uncertainty propagation equations of the first method.</p>

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Comparison of three uncertainty propagation methods for 234U–230Th radiochronometry in nuclear forensics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月28日

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  • Zsuzsanna Macsik,
  • Stefaan Pommé

摘要

Three uncertainty propagation methods were evaluated for the radiochronometry of the long-lived parent–daughter pair 234U-230Th for nuclear forensics applications. The methods considered were: (1) explicit analytical uncertainty propagation formulas derived by Pommé et al.; (2) linear uncertainty propagation using sensitivity coefficients generated with the GUM Workbench, in accordance with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (3) the Kragten method, which numerically estimates sensitivity coefficients by varying the input parameters of the nuclear dating equation. All three approaches yielded closely consistent results, thereby validating the analytical uncertainty propagation equations of the first method.