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<p>This study examines how entrepreneurial mobility across territorial boundaries affects firm survival within Entrepreneurial ecosystems, emphasizing the moderating role of technological intensity and ecosystem structure. Using firm-level data (2015–2020) from the PIPE/FAPESP entrepreneurship program in São Paulo, Brazil, we apply machine learning models to identify the main predictors of firm survival. The analysis reveals that mobility significantly enhances survival, particularly in medium- and high-technology industries where geographic positioning and institutional support are critical. Ecosystem attributes—such as institutional coherence, knowledge density, and market demand—emerge as key enablers of sustained performance, increasingly outweighing internal firm characteristics over time. These findings suggest that mobility operates as a systemic mechanism of knowledge circulation and adaptation, strengthening firm-level competitiveness. By integrating micro-level entrepreneurial behavior with meso-level spatial and institutional structures, the study contributes to literature by offering a data-driven understanding of how mobility shapes the spatial patterns of entrepreneurship. Policy implications highlight the importance of fostering interconnected and technologically diversified ecosystems to sustain innovation-driven ventures.</p>

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Mapping entrepreneurial mobility: a machine learning perspective on firm survival and ecosystem dynamics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月5日

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  • Angélica Pigola,
  • Bruno Fischer,
  • David B. Audretsch,
  • Gustavo Hermínio Salati Marcondes de Moraes

摘要

This study examines how entrepreneurial mobility across territorial boundaries affects firm survival within Entrepreneurial ecosystems, emphasizing the moderating role of technological intensity and ecosystem structure. Using firm-level data (2015–2020) from the PIPE/FAPESP entrepreneurship program in São Paulo, Brazil, we apply machine learning models to identify the main predictors of firm survival. The analysis reveals that mobility significantly enhances survival, particularly in medium- and high-technology industries where geographic positioning and institutional support are critical. Ecosystem attributes—such as institutional coherence, knowledge density, and market demand—emerge as key enablers of sustained performance, increasingly outweighing internal firm characteristics over time. These findings suggest that mobility operates as a systemic mechanism of knowledge circulation and adaptation, strengthening firm-level competitiveness. By integrating micro-level entrepreneurial behavior with meso-level spatial and institutional structures, the study contributes to literature by offering a data-driven understanding of how mobility shapes the spatial patterns of entrepreneurship. Policy implications highlight the importance of fostering interconnected and technologically diversified ecosystems to sustain innovation-driven ventures.