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<p>As a major technological power, technology transfer (TT) is crucial to China’s industrial upgrading and high-quality economic development. Based on 127,586 patent data from 25 high-innovation economies over 2003–2023, this study develops an integrated framework to analyze the impact of TT on industrial upgrading in China. We first estimate the effectiveness of technology transfer-out (TT-out) and transfer-in (TT-in) in China. TT-out denotes domestic-originated patents exported from Chinese entities to international recipients, while TT-in indicates patent applications originating from foreign entities legally transferred to Chinese recipients. Then, we apply fixed-effect and threshold effect models to elucidate TT-driven mechanisms for China’s industrial technology and structure upgrading. Results indicate that (i) there are cyclical fluctuations in the effectiveness of TT-out and TT-in during 2003–2023, with values ranging from 0.028 to 0.102 and 0.049 to 0.125, respectively. (ii) TT-in and TT-out both significantly drive China’s industrial technology and structure upgrading at 1% significance level. A one-unit increase in TT-out corresponds to a 0.873-unit advancement in technological upgrading and a 0.143-unit gain in structural upgrading, while each unit rise in TT-in drives a 0.684-unit improvement in technological upgrading and a 0.050-unit enhancement in structural upgrading. (iii) Threshold effect models further demonstrate nonlinear relationships between TT and industrial upgrading, moderated by indigenous innovation input, imitative innovation input, and technology absorption capacity.</p>

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The impact of technology transfer on industrial upgrading in China: an analysis based on patent data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月11日

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  • Yujiao Xian,
  • Min Hu,
  • Suping Peng,
  • Mei Song

摘要

As a major technological power, technology transfer (TT) is crucial to China’s industrial upgrading and high-quality economic development. Based on 127,586 patent data from 25 high-innovation economies over 2003–2023, this study develops an integrated framework to analyze the impact of TT on industrial upgrading in China. We first estimate the effectiveness of technology transfer-out (TT-out) and transfer-in (TT-in) in China. TT-out denotes domestic-originated patents exported from Chinese entities to international recipients, while TT-in indicates patent applications originating from foreign entities legally transferred to Chinese recipients. Then, we apply fixed-effect and threshold effect models to elucidate TT-driven mechanisms for China’s industrial technology and structure upgrading. Results indicate that (i) there are cyclical fluctuations in the effectiveness of TT-out and TT-in during 2003–2023, with values ranging from 0.028 to 0.102 and 0.049 to 0.125, respectively. (ii) TT-in and TT-out both significantly drive China’s industrial technology and structure upgrading at 1% significance level. A one-unit increase in TT-out corresponds to a 0.873-unit advancement in technological upgrading and a 0.143-unit gain in structural upgrading, while each unit rise in TT-in drives a 0.684-unit improvement in technological upgrading and a 0.050-unit enhancement in structural upgrading. (iii) Threshold effect models further demonstrate nonlinear relationships between TT and industrial upgrading, moderated by indigenous innovation input, imitative innovation input, and technology absorption capacity.