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<p>The 28 March 2025 strike-slip earthquake (<i>M</i><sub><i>w</i></sub>7.7) on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar, exhibited complex rupture dynamics, including supershear propagation. This study integrates the stochastic ground-motion simulations to validate rupture model and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) derived coherence and backscatter observations to assess the seismic hazard in data-sparse regions. The key source parameters for the simulations, including a seismic moment of 3.36 × 10<sup>2</sup>⁷ dyne·cm and stress drops of ~ 19–57 bars, are derived from spectral analysis of the same station data. The site response analysis using the horizontal-to-vertical spectra ratio method reveal the peak frequencies between 2.0 and 9.0&#xa0;Hz across the stations. These independently derived information is then used as the basis for simulating strong ground motions at five regional stations using the Extended SIMulation (EXSIM) finite-fault method. A relatively good match between the observed and simulated records (Root Mean Square error 0.35–0.82), thereby confirm the validity of the rupture parameters and EXSIM technique. The analysis shows that a 450&#xa0;km curved rupture model, incorporating variable supershear velocities (3.7–4.3&#xa0;km/s), is necessary to match observations. This approach confirms the role of supershear propagation in extending rupture length beyond empirical scaling. Coseismic coherence and backscatter intensity changes from Sentinel-1 SAR data are used to assess the coseismic damage assessment. Backscatter analysis further shows extensive liquefaction in floodplains and widespread building collapse in urban areas. This study validates an integrated methodology that combines ground-motion simulation for characterizing complex earthquakes and remote sensing approach. The findings provide critical inputs to support seismic hazard mitigation efforts in Myanmar region.</p>

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Stochastic ground-motion simulation using the EXtended SIMulation approach and synthetic aperture radar based damage assessment of the 2025 Myanmar earthquake

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月17日

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  • Monika,
  • Ashwani Raju,
  • Vikas Singh,
  • Parveen Kumar,
  • S. K. Pal,
  • Saraah Imran,
  • Sandeep

摘要

The 28 March 2025 strike-slip earthquake (Mw7.7) on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar, exhibited complex rupture dynamics, including supershear propagation. This study integrates the stochastic ground-motion simulations to validate rupture model and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) derived coherence and backscatter observations to assess the seismic hazard in data-sparse regions. The key source parameters for the simulations, including a seismic moment of 3.36 × 102⁷ dyne·cm and stress drops of ~ 19–57 bars, are derived from spectral analysis of the same station data. The site response analysis using the horizontal-to-vertical spectra ratio method reveal the peak frequencies between 2.0 and 9.0 Hz across the stations. These independently derived information is then used as the basis for simulating strong ground motions at five regional stations using the Extended SIMulation (EXSIM) finite-fault method. A relatively good match between the observed and simulated records (Root Mean Square error 0.35–0.82), thereby confirm the validity of the rupture parameters and EXSIM technique. The analysis shows that a 450 km curved rupture model, incorporating variable supershear velocities (3.7–4.3 km/s), is necessary to match observations. This approach confirms the role of supershear propagation in extending rupture length beyond empirical scaling. Coseismic coherence and backscatter intensity changes from Sentinel-1 SAR data are used to assess the coseismic damage assessment. Backscatter analysis further shows extensive liquefaction in floodplains and widespread building collapse in urban areas. This study validates an integrated methodology that combines ground-motion simulation for characterizing complex earthquakes and remote sensing approach. The findings provide critical inputs to support seismic hazard mitigation efforts in Myanmar region.