Insights into the 2025 Mw 7.7 Myanmar Earthquake using the broadband ground motion simulations
摘要
The present study brings forth the first comprehensive broadband ground motion simulations for the 2025 Mw 7.7 Myanmar earthquake, addressing the critical data scarcity in a highly seismic region with sparse strong motion instrumentation. As one of the most devastating events in the region’s history, the earthquake inflicted widespread destruction across Myanmar and neighboring countries. In the absence of a comprehensive strong motion instrumentation specifically along the Sagaing fault (seismic zone V), physics-based simulations offer an essential window into understanding the spatial variability of ground motions and their implications for seismic hazard assessment. In the present study, broadband ground motions are simulated over a near-field domain spanning approximately a 3° × 5° region around the multi-segmented fault plane of the event. To generate these ground motion time histories, the deterministic low-frequency waveforms are combined with stochastic high-frequency components, informed by regional crustal velocity models, topography and detailed source rupture parameters. The reliability of the simulated ground motions is assessed through comparisons with the limited available recordings in the near-field region, with residual analysis quantifying the level of agreement. Furthermore, the ground motions are synthesized on a dense grid of 0.1° × 0.1° and visualized through contour maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA). The highest PGA values are found to be 0.71 g, 0.86 g, and 0.40 g in the EW, NS, and vertical components, respectively. Additionally, the spatial distribution of the peak ground residual displacements is illustrated along with the stations proximal to the fault plane. Finally, the simulated PGAs are compared against global empirical ground motion models developed for subduction zones to evaluate their consistency and regional applicability. Thus, the study demonstrates the importance of simulation-based approaches for seismic hazard evaluation in data-scarce regions, thus offering valuable input for guiding future seismic instrumentation strategies and improving hazard awareness along the Sagaing Fault.