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<p>In Mexico, the Michoacán region and its adjacent areas are characterized by complex geodynamic interactions that result in significant seismic activity. Historical earthquakes, such as the Mw 8.1 event on September 19, 1985, and the Mw 7.7 event on September 19, 2022, as well as its tectonic activity, indicate an important seismic hazard in this area. The region is divided into three seismotectonic zones: one of subduction-related seismicity, another with intraplate seismicity of the subducted Cocos plate, and the third having shallow seismicity within the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, associated with the North American plate. This study focuses on the statistical analysis of seismicity and earthquake recurrence rates to assess seismic hazard, addressing spatial variations in seismic productivity and stress regimes. In this work, seismic hazard is understood as the probabilistic assessment of earthquake occurrence—severity (e.g., magnitude or intensity) and its temporal and spatial measures—derived from observational data (with no ground-motion modeling). A robust statistical-numerical framework was implemented, incorporating recent approaches such as the b-absolute and a-positive estimators. The seismic hazard assessment in the seismotectonic zones provides improved constraints for assessing the potential occurrence of significant earthquakes (Mw ≥ 4) and offers valuable input for the development of risk mitigation strategies.</p>

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A statistical insight into seismicity in the Michoacán Region, Mexico

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月24日

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  • Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas,
  • Angel Figueroa-Soto,
  • Valerie Pompa Mera

摘要

In Mexico, the Michoacán region and its adjacent areas are characterized by complex geodynamic interactions that result in significant seismic activity. Historical earthquakes, such as the Mw 8.1 event on September 19, 1985, and the Mw 7.7 event on September 19, 2022, as well as its tectonic activity, indicate an important seismic hazard in this area. The region is divided into three seismotectonic zones: one of subduction-related seismicity, another with intraplate seismicity of the subducted Cocos plate, and the third having shallow seismicity within the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, associated with the North American plate. This study focuses on the statistical analysis of seismicity and earthquake recurrence rates to assess seismic hazard, addressing spatial variations in seismic productivity and stress regimes. In this work, seismic hazard is understood as the probabilistic assessment of earthquake occurrence—severity (e.g., magnitude or intensity) and its temporal and spatial measures—derived from observational data (with no ground-motion modeling). A robust statistical-numerical framework was implemented, incorporating recent approaches such as the b-absolute and a-positive estimators. The seismic hazard assessment in the seismotectonic zones provides improved constraints for assessing the potential occurrence of significant earthquakes (Mw ≥ 4) and offers valuable input for the development of risk mitigation strategies.