Scholarlink

Objectives: <p>We estimate the causal effect of school holidays on crime by exploiting the staggered timing of the Swedish winter sports break (<i>sportlov</i>) across municipalities.</p> Methods: <p>We use a difference-in-differences design with municipality and year-by-week fixed effects on panel data covering 290 municipalities over 208 weeks (2021–2024). Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) is the primary specification, with county-level cluster inference and Romano-Wolf step-down adjusted <i>p</i>-values for family-wise correction.</p> Results: <p>The break reduces recorded assault by about 13 percent (PPML), concentrated among children of compulsory-school age (7–14: <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(-46\%\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>; 15–17: <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(-32\%\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), with no effect on placebo groups (ages 0–6 or adults). Residential burglary increases by about 14 percent, consistent with empty homes during family travel, while crime rises at ski-destination municipalities during the sportlov season, consistent with tourism-driven inflows. Event-study estimates show no pre-trends and no intertemporal displacement. Aggregate total-crime and property-crime estimates point in the same direction but are smaller and not robust to family-wise correction.</p> Conclusions: <p>The school environment concentrates youth in ways that produce interpersonal-conflict opportunities; the break disperses that concentration for one week and assault drops. Aggregate effects on total and property crime are suggestive but sensitive to specification.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

School Breaks and Crime: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Sweden

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月30日

查看全文
  • Niklas Jakobsson,
  • Manne Gerell,
  • Per Kristensson,
  • Siri Jakobsson Støre

摘要

Objectives:

We estimate the causal effect of school holidays on crime by exploiting the staggered timing of the Swedish winter sports break (sportlov) across municipalities.

Methods:

We use a difference-in-differences design with municipality and year-by-week fixed effects on panel data covering 290 municipalities over 208 weeks (2021–2024). Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) is the primary specification, with county-level cluster inference and Romano-Wolf step-down adjusted p-values for family-wise correction.

Results:

The break reduces recorded assault by about 13 percent (PPML), concentrated among children of compulsory-school age (7–14: \(-46\%\) ; 15–17: \(-32\%\) ), with no effect on placebo groups (ages 0–6 or adults). Residential burglary increases by about 14 percent, consistent with empty homes during family travel, while crime rises at ski-destination municipalities during the sportlov season, consistent with tourism-driven inflows. Event-study estimates show no pre-trends and no intertemporal displacement. Aggregate total-crime and property-crime estimates point in the same direction but are smaller and not robust to family-wise correction.

Conclusions:

The school environment concentrates youth in ways that produce interpersonal-conflict opportunities; the break disperses that concentration for one week and assault drops. Aggregate effects on total and property crime are suggestive but sensitive to specification.