Making Spatial More Spatial: Decomposing Direct, Indirect, and Total Impacts in Neighborhood and Crime Studies
摘要
We attempt to enhance both the theories and empirical examination of neighborhood and crime by adapting the direct-indirect-total effect interpretation. We first discuss theoretical and methodological motivations for the current study and show how to decompose the direct, indirect, and total effects in the context of neighborhood and crime study.
MethodsWe empirically demonstrate this using the sample of block groups in Los Angeles County. For our demonstration of the direct-indirect interpretation with realworld data, we adopt the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). We examined how variations in explanatory variables impact crime rates within a neighborhood and how these effects spill over into adjacent areas. The estimated effects from the SDM models were calculated with 1,000 simulations. For each variable, the indirect and total impacts reflect the cumulative spatial effects across neighboring units.We attempt to enhance both the theories and empirical examination of neighborhood and crime by adapting the direct-indirect-total effect interpretation. We first discuss theoretical and methodological motivations for the current study and show how to decompose the direct, indirect, and total effects in the context of neighborhood and crime study.
ResultsOur findings suggest that crime-reducing or -producing effect of certain structural characteristics in one neighborhood may have broader regional effects potentially enhancing or reducing crime not only locally but also in neighboring communities through significant spatial spillovers.
ConclusionThe suggested approach in the current study further highlighted the importance of spatial dependency of social factors across space and advances our understanding of neighborhood and crime by rigorously interpretating the direct-indirect-total effects of structural characteristics on crime beyond individual neighborhoods. We further discuss the methodological implications of our findings.