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<p>This study examines how rising temperatures affect housing affordability in Chinese cities, a topic that is critical for understanding both urban resilience and social equity under climate change. We pair a city-level panel data of housing affordability, measured by a comprehensive housing affordability index, with a daily weather dataset for 282 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020. Using a distributed-lag panel model, we estimate the effects of temperature changes on housing affordability. The results show that the cumulative impact of temperatures is substantial. Compared with days in temperature bin [12&#xa0;°C, 18&#xa0;°C), an additional day in temperature bin [24&#xa0;°C, 30&#xa0;°C) reduces housing affordability by about 0.49%, while an additional day above 30&#xa0;°C reduces it by 0.82%. Moreover, the spatial results reveal a negative spillover effect in which higher thermal stress in neighboring cities is associated with a relative decline in local housing affordability pressure. In the coastal and developed cities, the negative impact of extreme high temperatures on housing affordability is more significant. Mechanism analysis further shows that rising temperatures increase construction costs and household energy expenditures, reduce total factor productivity, and affect population movements, thereby lowering affordability. Applying these results to temperature change predictions from the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System model shows that by 2061–2080 the housing affordability is likely to continue to weaken if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. By integrating climate risk into the measurement of housing affordability and identifying the channels of influence, this study extends previous research and highlights the importance of climate-adaptive housing and urban policies.</p>

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Temperature and housing affordability: evidence from China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月10日

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  • Lin Zhou,
  • Jianshuang Fan,
  • Mingzhi Hu,
  • Qiongfang Feng

摘要

This study examines how rising temperatures affect housing affordability in Chinese cities, a topic that is critical for understanding both urban resilience and social equity under climate change. We pair a city-level panel data of housing affordability, measured by a comprehensive housing affordability index, with a daily weather dataset for 282 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020. Using a distributed-lag panel model, we estimate the effects of temperature changes on housing affordability. The results show that the cumulative impact of temperatures is substantial. Compared with days in temperature bin [12 °C, 18 °C), an additional day in temperature bin [24 °C, 30 °C) reduces housing affordability by about 0.49%, while an additional day above 30 °C reduces it by 0.82%. Moreover, the spatial results reveal a negative spillover effect in which higher thermal stress in neighboring cities is associated with a relative decline in local housing affordability pressure. In the coastal and developed cities, the negative impact of extreme high temperatures on housing affordability is more significant. Mechanism analysis further shows that rising temperatures increase construction costs and household energy expenditures, reduce total factor productivity, and affect population movements, thereby lowering affordability. Applying these results to temperature change predictions from the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System model shows that by 2061–2080 the housing affordability is likely to continue to weaken if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. By integrating climate risk into the measurement of housing affordability and identifying the channels of influence, this study extends previous research and highlights the importance of climate-adaptive housing and urban policies.