<p>This paper presents the first long-run estimates of global and regional income polarization covering the period 1960–2020. Using grouped data from the World Income Inequality Database, we reconstruct country income distributions using a flexible parametric model to compute both bipolarization indices and the Duclos–Esteban–Ray (DER) polarization measure, which allows for multiple poles. To address normative considerations, we estimate relative and absolute versions of polarization measures and introduce a parametrization of the DER index that is jointly scale- and translation-invariant. Our results show a pronounced decline in relative global polarization and bipolarization since the 1980s, consistent with a global distribution that shifts from multiple modes in the 1960s–70s toward an increasingly unimodal shape by the 2000s. In contrast, absolute bipolarization has continued to rise markedly since the 1980s, while absolute polarization generally increases for low-to-moderate values of the identification (sensitivity) parameter. Regional patterns are highly heterogeneous: absolute polarization is highest in North America and Europe and Central Asia; it has grown fastest in South Asia despite remaining lowest in level. In contrast, relative polarization peaked in East Asia and the Pacific before declining, while rising steadily in North America. China and India play a pivotal role in shaping trends of global absolute bipolarization. Our results underscore the need to consider both relative and absolute perspectives when assessing the implications of income polarization.</p>

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Global income polarization: relative and absolute perspectives

  • Vanesa Jorda,
  • Miguel Niño-Zarazúa,
  • Laurence SJ Roope,
  • Finn Tarp

摘要

This paper presents the first long-run estimates of global and regional income polarization covering the period 1960–2020. Using grouped data from the World Income Inequality Database, we reconstruct country income distributions using a flexible parametric model to compute both bipolarization indices and the Duclos–Esteban–Ray (DER) polarization measure, which allows for multiple poles. To address normative considerations, we estimate relative and absolute versions of polarization measures and introduce a parametrization of the DER index that is jointly scale- and translation-invariant. Our results show a pronounced decline in relative global polarization and bipolarization since the 1980s, consistent with a global distribution that shifts from multiple modes in the 1960s–70s toward an increasingly unimodal shape by the 2000s. In contrast, absolute bipolarization has continued to rise markedly since the 1980s, while absolute polarization generally increases for low-to-moderate values of the identification (sensitivity) parameter. Regional patterns are highly heterogeneous: absolute polarization is highest in North America and Europe and Central Asia; it has grown fastest in South Asia despite remaining lowest in level. In contrast, relative polarization peaked in East Asia and the Pacific before declining, while rising steadily in North America. China and India play a pivotal role in shaping trends of global absolute bipolarization. Our results underscore the need to consider both relative and absolute perspectives when assessing the implications of income polarization.