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<p>This study is an extensive analysis to identify the potential effect of the membership of a mega trade bloc called RCEP on the trade and overall economy of Bangladesh to cope with the challenges of LDC graduation. This study applies both partial equilibrium SMART simulation and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the trade and economic effect of RCEP on Bangladesh. The partial equilibrium SMART simulation results suggest that the tariff facility due to RCEP membership will substantially increase the export of Bangladesh to RCEP member countries. The CGE simulation analysis results suggest that the apparel sector will experience the highest increase in exports by $62,194.83 million followed by textiles at $290.03 and leather at $223.74 million after joining RCEP. Most of the sectors will have substantial export gains. The results also show that exports of different sectors especially the apparel sector will fall if Bangladesh does not join RCEP. The findings of the study provide crucial policy directives on joining Bangladesh to the mega-trade bloc like RCEP.</p>

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Should Bangladesh Join RCEP? Potential Trade and Economic Effects Analysis Using Partial and General Equilibrium Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月15日

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  • Mohammad Monirul Islam,
  • Farha Fatema,
  • Tania Rahman

摘要

This study is an extensive analysis to identify the potential effect of the membership of a mega trade bloc called RCEP on the trade and overall economy of Bangladesh to cope with the challenges of LDC graduation. This study applies both partial equilibrium SMART simulation and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the trade and economic effect of RCEP on Bangladesh. The partial equilibrium SMART simulation results suggest that the tariff facility due to RCEP membership will substantially increase the export of Bangladesh to RCEP member countries. The CGE simulation analysis results suggest that the apparel sector will experience the highest increase in exports by $62,194.83 million followed by textiles at $290.03 and leather at $223.74 million after joining RCEP. Most of the sectors will have substantial export gains. The results also show that exports of different sectors especially the apparel sector will fall if Bangladesh does not join RCEP. The findings of the study provide crucial policy directives on joining Bangladesh to the mega-trade bloc like RCEP.