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Abstract <p>Climate change is reshaping species distributions and habitat suitability, presenting particular challenges for habitat-specialist species with limited dispersal ability and strong ecological dependencies. The small blue butterfly (<i>Cupido minimus</i>) is a habitat-specialist that is rare and localised in Scotland, where it relies on kidney vetch (<i>Anthyllis vulneraria</i>) as its sole larval host plant. This study uses MaxEnt-based integrative species distribution modelling to assess how climate change may affect future habitat suitability for the small blue in Scotland, while incorporating environmental predictors and host-plant suitability, with a post-model assessment of coastal erosion risk. The results suggest that suitable habitat for small blue is likely to shift inland under future high-emission climate scenarios, with substantial declines in coastal suitability by the late 21st century. Climate-driven shifts in habitat may create a mismatch between the location of environmentally-favourable areas, host-plant availability, and existing populations. For coastal populations, rising sea levels and shoreline erosion may further reduce or fragment the narrow strips of grassland and dune habitats on which the small blue depends. Including non-climatic and biotic predictors helped produce more ecologically constrained projections, while more complex models may reduce the relative contribution of key climatic variables.</p> Implications for insect conservation <p>This study demonstrates how combining climate, biotic, and coastal-change information can support spatially explicit conservation planning for coastal populations of threatened insects. Forward planning for the conservation of the small blue will be required as potential inland habitat expansions, whilst providing a lifeline for this butterfly, are uncertain and may depend on kidney vetch availability, habitat connectivity and successful colonisation. For the small blue butterfly, adaptive conservation strategies in response to shifting habitats will be essential to support its long-term persistence.</p>

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The future of the small blue butterfly (Cupido minimus) in Scotland

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月4日

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  • Zhilin Yu,
  • Andrew J. Dugmore

摘要

Abstract

Climate change is reshaping species distributions and habitat suitability, presenting particular challenges for habitat-specialist species with limited dispersal ability and strong ecological dependencies. The small blue butterfly (Cupido minimus) is a habitat-specialist that is rare and localised in Scotland, where it relies on kidney vetch (Anthyllis vulneraria) as its sole larval host plant. This study uses MaxEnt-based integrative species distribution modelling to assess how climate change may affect future habitat suitability for the small blue in Scotland, while incorporating environmental predictors and host-plant suitability, with a post-model assessment of coastal erosion risk. The results suggest that suitable habitat for small blue is likely to shift inland under future high-emission climate scenarios, with substantial declines in coastal suitability by the late 21st century. Climate-driven shifts in habitat may create a mismatch between the location of environmentally-favourable areas, host-plant availability, and existing populations. For coastal populations, rising sea levels and shoreline erosion may further reduce or fragment the narrow strips of grassland and dune habitats on which the small blue depends. Including non-climatic and biotic predictors helped produce more ecologically constrained projections, while more complex models may reduce the relative contribution of key climatic variables.

Implications for insect conservation

This study demonstrates how combining climate, biotic, and coastal-change information can support spatially explicit conservation planning for coastal populations of threatened insects. Forward planning for the conservation of the small blue will be required as potential inland habitat expansions, whilst providing a lifeline for this butterfly, are uncertain and may depend on kidney vetch availability, habitat connectivity and successful colonisation. For the small blue butterfly, adaptive conservation strategies in response to shifting habitats will be essential to support its long-term persistence.