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<p>The UNFCCC annual Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings produce consensus decisions on key climate issues. Which topics get covered in final COP decisions and why? While mitigation has long dominated these decisions, in recent years, as Global South countries have become more vocal, other issues have featured more in conversations, including adaptation and loss and damage. Within COP meetings, leadership of a particular country can have important implications for the final result. I test a theory that COP President countries’ domestic context, particularly wealth and democracy, shapes which topics receive marginally more attention. Using a structural topic model to classify COP decision text from 1995 to 2023, I find that mitigation is more prominent when the COP President is from a less wealthy country, while the level of democracy has no significant effect. These findings suggest that domestic material conditions constrain international climate negotiation outcomes, even within highly visible, performative, and consensus-driven decision processes.</p>

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How domestic political context shapes the topics in UNFCCC conference of the parties decisions, 1995–2023

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月31日

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  • Kayla Morton

摘要

The UNFCCC annual Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings produce consensus decisions on key climate issues. Which topics get covered in final COP decisions and why? While mitigation has long dominated these decisions, in recent years, as Global South countries have become more vocal, other issues have featured more in conversations, including adaptation and loss and damage. Within COP meetings, leadership of a particular country can have important implications for the final result. I test a theory that COP President countries’ domestic context, particularly wealth and democracy, shapes which topics receive marginally more attention. Using a structural topic model to classify COP decision text from 1995 to 2023, I find that mitigation is more prominent when the COP President is from a less wealthy country, while the level of democracy has no significant effect. These findings suggest that domestic material conditions constrain international climate negotiation outcomes, even within highly visible, performative, and consensus-driven decision processes.