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<p>Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly exposed to climate warming and land-use pressures that alter thermal regimes and community structure. We assessed 68 Croatian river sites using Trichoptera as indicators to identify temperature thresholds and catchment drivers of stream warming. Redundancy analysis showed that upper-percentile stream temperature (75th percentile) was the strongest correlate of caddisfly composition, alongside oxygen metrics and organic matter indicators. Using TITAN2 on taxa occurring at ≥ 3 sites, we detected a community-level threshold at 17.54&#xa0;°C (75th percentile), with taxa associated with cooler stream conditions shifting near 13–14&#xa0;°C and warm-tolerant taxa (e.g., <i>Hydropsyche instabilis</i>) responding above ~ 22&#xa0;°C. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model using CORINE land-cover classes identified intensive agriculture as the strongest predictor of stream temperature, while natural land cover was associated with cooler stream conditions. Together, these results highlight an ecologically meaningful thermal inflection for Trichoptera assemblages in Croatian rivers and actionable landscape levers to buffer warming. However, defining strict thermal affinities is complex, as higher temperatures can accelerate development and emergence. Nevertheless, consistent taxon responses indicate a robust community-level pattern rather than a phenological artifact. We provide management-relevant thresholds and identify catchment conditions that support thermally sensitive caddisfly assemblages.</p>

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A snapshot of climate change effects in croatian running waters: insights from caddisfly communities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月28日

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  • Jana Zekirovski,
  • Ivana Pozojević,
  • Valentina Dorić,
  • Mario Rumišek,
  • Natalija Vučković,
  • Zlatko Mihaljević

摘要

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly exposed to climate warming and land-use pressures that alter thermal regimes and community structure. We assessed 68 Croatian river sites using Trichoptera as indicators to identify temperature thresholds and catchment drivers of stream warming. Redundancy analysis showed that upper-percentile stream temperature (75th percentile) was the strongest correlate of caddisfly composition, alongside oxygen metrics and organic matter indicators. Using TITAN2 on taxa occurring at ≥ 3 sites, we detected a community-level threshold at 17.54 °C (75th percentile), with taxa associated with cooler stream conditions shifting near 13–14 °C and warm-tolerant taxa (e.g., Hydropsyche instabilis) responding above ~ 22 °C. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model using CORINE land-cover classes identified intensive agriculture as the strongest predictor of stream temperature, while natural land cover was associated with cooler stream conditions. Together, these results highlight an ecologically meaningful thermal inflection for Trichoptera assemblages in Croatian rivers and actionable landscape levers to buffer warming. However, defining strict thermal affinities is complex, as higher temperatures can accelerate development and emergence. Nevertheless, consistent taxon responses indicate a robust community-level pattern rather than a phenological artifact. We provide management-relevant thresholds and identify catchment conditions that support thermally sensitive caddisfly assemblages.