Self-Projection on the Sustainability of the Nomadic Pastoral Lifestyle by Families in the Gobi Desert (Mongolia)
摘要
We assess the future of nomadic pastoralism in Mongolia amid environmental change using a dual approach: a correlational study based on a demographic database and a causal study using a serious game. We show that families were resilient to previous severe weather events, dzuds, likely because these events occurred at large ten-year intervals. However, our serious game also indicates that successive future dzuds could exceed the resilience of nomadic families. This could lead to the rapid disappearance of nomadic pastoralism within as few as three years of successive dzuds.