Where will patients go? A network simulation of general practitioner closures and patient displacement in Czechia
摘要
Primary care in Czechia is largely provided by aging general practitioners (GPs), with an average age of 55—one of the highest in Europe. Coupled with low interest to enter general practice from younger doctors, this raises concerns about the healthcare system’s ability to adapt to workforce decline, in face of the rising healthcare demands associated with an aging population. We aim to identify how patients in Czechia adapt to the shrinking GP workforce, highlight regions at risk of being unable to provide local primary healthcare, and identify GPs who benefit the system by absorbing displaced patient cohorts. Using full-population data from the Czech health registries we build a network of GPs linked by their shared patients. The strength of the link between two GPs is given by the proportion of a GPs patients that visit both GPs during 2022–2023. We simulate GP closures and analyze how effectively their patients can be absorbed by the remaining GPs, based on patient-flow patterns and local provider capacity. We found that the patients of two-thirds of GPs could immediately be absorbed by directly connected GPs with additional capacity. However, some regions, especially border areas like Domažlice, Tachov, Jeseník, and Chomutov, show weaker resilience to GP closures, with patients searching longer for GPs with capacity. The GPs who absorb patients are found not only in cities but also in suburban regions like Most, Teplice, and Kladno. Our results indicate that patient flows could play a critical role in assessing the impact of changes in GP supply, as they introduce to the system a notable degree of flexibility. Therefore, evaluating the effects of changing GP availability requires considering not only the local supply but also the capacity of surrounding areas.