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<p>The increasing frequency and uncertainty of emergencies have greatly complicated decision-making processes. Traditional models often assume rational decision-makers. However, psychological biases, especially the anchoring effect, frequently shape judgments and can lead to suboptimal outcomes. In practice, emergency response typically follows a vertical, multi-stage reporting structure, yet the interaction between this hierarchical process and anchoring effects remains underexplored. This study proposes a vertical multi-stage emergency group decision-making (V-MSEGDM) framework that explicitly incorporates anchoring effects into inter-level reporting and evaluation. The framework structures decision-making across hierarchical levels, integrates feedback and consensus mechanisms at each stage, and models how anchoring influences higher-level evaluations. In addition, a novel nonlinear urgency index is developed by combining event risk and decision-maker hesitation, enabling dynamic and multidimensional urgency assessment. A numerical experiment based on a real-world-inspired emergency scenario, along with sensitivity analyses and comparative studies against traditional single-stage approaches, demonstrates the validity and advantages of the proposed framework.</p>

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A Vertical Multi-Stage Emergency Group Decision-Making Framework Integrating Anchoring Effects and Urgency Assessment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月3日

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  • Yuehao Xu,
  • Pei Wang,
  • Yuyun Zheng,
  • Meiying Su,
  • Xiaoen Lu

摘要

The increasing frequency and uncertainty of emergencies have greatly complicated decision-making processes. Traditional models often assume rational decision-makers. However, psychological biases, especially the anchoring effect, frequently shape judgments and can lead to suboptimal outcomes. In practice, emergency response typically follows a vertical, multi-stage reporting structure, yet the interaction between this hierarchical process and anchoring effects remains underexplored. This study proposes a vertical multi-stage emergency group decision-making (V-MSEGDM) framework that explicitly incorporates anchoring effects into inter-level reporting and evaluation. The framework structures decision-making across hierarchical levels, integrates feedback and consensus mechanisms at each stage, and models how anchoring influences higher-level evaluations. In addition, a novel nonlinear urgency index is developed by combining event risk and decision-maker hesitation, enabling dynamic and multidimensional urgency assessment. A numerical experiment based on a real-world-inspired emergency scenario, along with sensitivity analyses and comparative studies against traditional single-stage approaches, demonstrates the validity and advantages of the proposed framework.