<p>Rapid urbanization in Global South cities poses significant threats to ecosystem services and long-term environmental sustainability. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) changes and their impact on ecosystem service values (ESV) in Lahore, Pakistan, over 30 years (1994–2024). Using Landsat satellite imagery integrated with benefit transfer valuation methods, the study analyzed LULC transformations and their ecological consequences. Results reveal substantial urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing from 31,700 ha to 67,900 ha (114% growth), accompanied by significant declines in vegetation cover (38.5% to 27.8%) and agricultural land (32.0% to 23.8%). Consequently, total ESV decreased by approximately 37%, from USD 37.06 million to USD 23.38 million annually, primarily driven by losses in regulating and supporting services. Spatial analysis demonstrates a pronounced shift from high-value ecological zones to low-value urban landscapes. Critically, areas with higher ecosystem services exhibit significantly lower land surface temperatures and improved air quality, emphasizing their regulatory role in urban environments. Partial least squares structural equation modeling confirms that urban expansion (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\beta =-0.028,p<0.01$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>β</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mn>0.028</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mi>p</mi> <mo><</mo> <mn>0.01</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), rising land surface temperature (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\beta =-0.115,p<0.05$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>β</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mn>0.115</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mi>p</mi> <mo><</mo> <mn>0.05</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), and deteriorating air quality (<InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\beta =-0.009,p<0.05$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>β</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mn>0.009</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mi>p</mi> <mo><</mo> <mn>0.05</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) are significant determinants of ESV decline. These findings highlight the urgent need for integrating ecosystem service valuation into urban planning frameworks. The study proposes nature-based solutions, green infrastructure development, and ecological zoning as actionable pathways to enhance urban resilience. So, the study provides empirical evidence and policy-relevant insights for sustainable urban governance in rapidly urbanizing regions of the Global South.</p>

Impacts of urbanization on ecosystem services and sustainability pathways: empirical evidence from Lahore, Pakistan

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年8月4日

查看全文

Muhammad Jabbar,
Muhammad Nasar-u-Minallah,
Mariney Mohd Yusoff,
Aysha Hanif,
Muhammad Ghous,
Shiza Ashiq,
Dmitry Kucher

摘要

Rapid urbanization in Global South cities poses significant threats to ecosystem services and long-term environmental sustainability. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) changes and their impact on ecosystem service values (ESV) in Lahore, Pakistan, over 30 years (1994–2024). Using Landsat satellite imagery integrated with benefit transfer valuation methods, the study analyzed LULC transformations and their ecological consequences. Results reveal substantial urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing from 31,700 ha to 67,900 ha (114% growth), accompanied by significant declines in vegetation cover (38.5% to 27.8%) and agricultural land (32.0% to 23.8%). Consequently, total ESV decreased by approximately 37%, from USD 37.06 million to USD 23.38 million annually, primarily driven by losses in regulating and supporting services. Spatial analysis demonstrates a pronounced shift from high-value ecological zones to low-value urban landscapes. Critically, areas with higher ecosystem services exhibit significantly lower land surface temperatures and improved air quality, emphasizing their regulatory role in urban environments. Partial least squares structural equation modeling confirms that urban expansion ( $\beta =-0.028,p<0.01$ $β = - 0.028, p < 0.01$ ), rising land surface temperature ( $\beta =-0.115,p<0.05$ $β = - 0.115, p < 0.05$ ), and deteriorating air quality ( $\beta =-0.009,p<0.05$ $β = - 0.009, p < 0.05$ ) are significant determinants of ESV decline. These findings highlight the urgent need for integrating ecosystem service valuation into urban planning frameworks. The study proposes nature-based solutions, green infrastructure development, and ecological zoning as actionable pathways to enhance urban resilience. So, the study provides empirical evidence and policy-relevant insights for sustainable urban governance in rapidly urbanizing regions of the Global South.