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<p>Rapid urbanisation is a major driver of environmental degradation in developing countries, where urban growth often exceeds the capacity of infrastructure and environmental management systems. Srinagar, a temperate Himalayan city, has experienced significant urban expansion over the past two decades; however, its cumulative environmental impacts remain insufficiently quantified. This study aims to assess the spatio-temporal environmental changes associated with urban growth in Srinagar from 2001 to 2021. An integrated remote sensing approach was employed using satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST), vegetation cover (VC) derived from NDVI, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from AOD-GEOS-Chem datasets. A grid-based analytical framework combined with Mann–Kendall trend analysis and multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to evaluate trends and interrelationships among environmental variables. Results reveal a substantial increase in LST (up to 4&#xa0;°C), a significant decline in vegetation cover, and rising PM2.5 concentrations (up to 3.9&#xa0;µg/m<sup>3</sup>), particularly in central and south-western areas. Regression analysis indicates that vegetation loss and PM2.5 significantly contribute to surface warming (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.46), while PM2.5 variability is influenced by additional factors beyond LST and VC. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) shows that more than half of the city now falls within moderate to poor environmental quality categories. These findings demonstrate that rapid urban expansion in Srinagar is driving simultaneous thermal stress, vegetation loss, and air-quality deterioration. The study highlights the urgent need for integrated urban planning, green infrastructure development, and pollution control strategies to improve environmental sustainability and support Sustainable Development Goal 11.</p>

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Quantifying the environmental impacts of urban expansion in Srinagar City, Jammu & Kashmir, India through remote sensing and geostatistical analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月8日

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  • Amjed Ali,
  • Kheraj,
  • Arshad Ahmed

摘要

Rapid urbanisation is a major driver of environmental degradation in developing countries, where urban growth often exceeds the capacity of infrastructure and environmental management systems. Srinagar, a temperate Himalayan city, has experienced significant urban expansion over the past two decades; however, its cumulative environmental impacts remain insufficiently quantified. This study aims to assess the spatio-temporal environmental changes associated with urban growth in Srinagar from 2001 to 2021. An integrated remote sensing approach was employed using satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST), vegetation cover (VC) derived from NDVI, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from AOD-GEOS-Chem datasets. A grid-based analytical framework combined with Mann–Kendall trend analysis and multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to evaluate trends and interrelationships among environmental variables. Results reveal a substantial increase in LST (up to 4 °C), a significant decline in vegetation cover, and rising PM2.5 concentrations (up to 3.9 µg/m3), particularly in central and south-western areas. Regression analysis indicates that vegetation loss and PM2.5 significantly contribute to surface warming (R2 = 0.46), while PM2.5 variability is influenced by additional factors beyond LST and VC. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) shows that more than half of the city now falls within moderate to poor environmental quality categories. These findings demonstrate that rapid urban expansion in Srinagar is driving simultaneous thermal stress, vegetation loss, and air-quality deterioration. The study highlights the urgent need for integrated urban planning, green infrastructure development, and pollution control strategies to improve environmental sustainability and support Sustainable Development Goal 11.