<p>Over the last few centuries, alterations in land use and land cover have posed significant obstacles to sustainable development, disrupting natural ecosystem functions, biological cycles and the delivery of vital ecosystem services and climate regulation. In this regard, a comprehensive grasp of historical and anticipated patterns in LULC transformation is vital for the judicious management of natural resources. This research aimed to simulate the transformative dynamics of landscape and urban expansion from 1995 to 2040. The satellite imagery underwent classification through the application of the Random Forest supervised classification at the same time, the (LCM) Land Change Modeler module within TerrSet software facilitated the evaluation of historical LULC dynamics and the projection to forecast the possible changes in the landscape by the year 2040. During the 1995–2010, 2010–2025 and 1995–2025 periods settlement exhibited a markedly upward trajectory, increasing from 44.17 km<sup>2</sup> (2.85%) in 1995 to 184.81 km<sup>2</sup> (11.91%) by 2025, while agricultural land and vegetation displayed marked declines. The Markov and Multi-Layer Perception models predicted a further landscape change with settlement areas expanding to 17.73% (275 km<sup>2</sup>) in 2040 and a continued reduction in fallow land, vegetation and water bodies. The model's outstanding predictive capacity was validated (skill measure 0.6346; overall accuracy above 93%), demonstrating its reliability as a tool for predicting future land use trends. In fast-growing and culturally significant regions and smart cities these estimates highlight the urgent need for sustainable land management techniques such as agroforestry to reduce environmental degradation and improve ecological resilience.</p>

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Geospatial prediction of urban trajectory using CA-Markov modeling for sustainable smart city planning

  • Bilal Mohd,
  • Shahab Fazal,
  • Salman Ahmed,
  • Dmitry E. Kucher

摘要

Over the last few centuries, alterations in land use and land cover have posed significant obstacles to sustainable development, disrupting natural ecosystem functions, biological cycles and the delivery of vital ecosystem services and climate regulation. In this regard, a comprehensive grasp of historical and anticipated patterns in LULC transformation is vital for the judicious management of natural resources. This research aimed to simulate the transformative dynamics of landscape and urban expansion from 1995 to 2040. The satellite imagery underwent classification through the application of the Random Forest supervised classification at the same time, the (LCM) Land Change Modeler module within TerrSet software facilitated the evaluation of historical LULC dynamics and the projection to forecast the possible changes in the landscape by the year 2040. During the 1995–2010, 2010–2025 and 1995–2025 periods settlement exhibited a markedly upward trajectory, increasing from 44.17 km2 (2.85%) in 1995 to 184.81 km2 (11.91%) by 2025, while agricultural land and vegetation displayed marked declines. The Markov and Multi-Layer Perception models predicted a further landscape change with settlement areas expanding to 17.73% (275 km2) in 2040 and a continued reduction in fallow land, vegetation and water bodies. The model's outstanding predictive capacity was validated (skill measure 0.6346; overall accuracy above 93%), demonstrating its reliability as a tool for predicting future land use trends. In fast-growing and culturally significant regions and smart cities these estimates highlight the urgent need for sustainable land management techniques such as agroforestry to reduce environmental degradation and improve ecological resilience.