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<p>Post-demographic transition cities globally are confronted by a critical planning paradox: the legacy of sprawling urban forms, a product of past growth, is fundamentally unsustainable, yet conventional planning paradigms, including the traditional compact city model, remain predicated on a growth imperative. This study addresses this impasse by developing a novel Planning Support System (PSS) that operationalises ‘smart shrinkage’—a strategic approach to urban contraction. The framework uniquely integrates predictive spatial modeling, using Quantification Theory Type I on two decades of historical land conversion data, with a policy-driven, rule-based simulation to guide urban concentration. Applied to Takamatsu City, a representative mid-sized Japanese city navigating its post-regulatory landscape, the PSS projects a 2040 compact urban model. Key findings demonstrate a significant restructuring of the urban fabric, including an 18.4% reduction in low-density areas, a 24.5% concentration of population into designated urban bases, and a 19.3% improvement in public transport accessibility. The framework offers a transferable, data-driven analytical tool to support compact-city policy-making in shrinking contexts, though its direct application requires recalibration to local regulatory and data environments.</p>

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A geospatial simulation framework for smart shrinkage in post-demographic transition cities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月25日

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  • Taher Osman

摘要

Post-demographic transition cities globally are confronted by a critical planning paradox: the legacy of sprawling urban forms, a product of past growth, is fundamentally unsustainable, yet conventional planning paradigms, including the traditional compact city model, remain predicated on a growth imperative. This study addresses this impasse by developing a novel Planning Support System (PSS) that operationalises ‘smart shrinkage’—a strategic approach to urban contraction. The framework uniquely integrates predictive spatial modeling, using Quantification Theory Type I on two decades of historical land conversion data, with a policy-driven, rule-based simulation to guide urban concentration. Applied to Takamatsu City, a representative mid-sized Japanese city navigating its post-regulatory landscape, the PSS projects a 2040 compact urban model. Key findings demonstrate a significant restructuring of the urban fabric, including an 18.4% reduction in low-density areas, a 24.5% concentration of population into designated urban bases, and a 19.3% improvement in public transport accessibility. The framework offers a transferable, data-driven analytical tool to support compact-city policy-making in shrinking contexts, though its direct application requires recalibration to local regulatory and data environments.