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<p>This paper critically examines the electoral tendencies characterizing the political landscape of Gujarat. It analyzes the causes of the consistent electoral dominance of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state’s legislative assembly elections, focusing on the 2012, 2017, and 2022 elections. While much of the existing literature attributes the BJP’s success to Hindutva consolidation, populist welfare schemes, and charismatic leadership, this study highlights the simultaneous process of institutional capture that has systematically weakened democratic dissent and oppositional forces in Gujarat. The BJP’s strategic deployment of identity-based electoral strategies, particularly around religion, caste, and regional-cultural narratives, has enabled it to construct a stable and broad-based voter coalition. The party’s success is further reinforced by its ability to form a social identity coalition, engaging in the politics of assimilation and accommodation with divergent caste and tribal interests within a broader Hindutva framework, thereby crafting a homogenized political identity that transcends traditional social divisions. Beyond electoral engineering, the BJP’s dominance is also rooted in its ability to silence criticism by instrumentalizing state institutions, including the media, judiciary, law enforcement, and regulatory bodies governing civil society. This erosion of democratic checks and the marginalization of critical voices, activists, journalists, and NGOs have curtailed the possibility of alternative political narratives and scrutiny. By examining constituency-wise electoral data and socio-demographic trends through geospatial techniques (GIS-based mapping), the study reveals how place-based identity, populism, and post-truth constructs have converged with institutional suppression to reshape Gujarat’s democratic space. The paper argues that the BJP’s dominance is not merely a product of popular support or cultural resonance but also of a deliberate effort to restrict the discursive and institutional arenas of dissent. The Gujarat model thus emerges as a case study in competitive authoritarianism masked within electoral legitimacy, raising urgent concerns for the health of India’s democracy.</p>

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Populism and identity politics in Gujarat: analyzing emerging trends in recent assembly elections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月7日

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  • Firoj Biswas,
  • Mohd Firoz Ahamed

摘要

This paper critically examines the electoral tendencies characterizing the political landscape of Gujarat. It analyzes the causes of the consistent electoral dominance of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state’s legislative assembly elections, focusing on the 2012, 2017, and 2022 elections. While much of the existing literature attributes the BJP’s success to Hindutva consolidation, populist welfare schemes, and charismatic leadership, this study highlights the simultaneous process of institutional capture that has systematically weakened democratic dissent and oppositional forces in Gujarat. The BJP’s strategic deployment of identity-based electoral strategies, particularly around religion, caste, and regional-cultural narratives, has enabled it to construct a stable and broad-based voter coalition. The party’s success is further reinforced by its ability to form a social identity coalition, engaging in the politics of assimilation and accommodation with divergent caste and tribal interests within a broader Hindutva framework, thereby crafting a homogenized political identity that transcends traditional social divisions. Beyond electoral engineering, the BJP’s dominance is also rooted in its ability to silence criticism by instrumentalizing state institutions, including the media, judiciary, law enforcement, and regulatory bodies governing civil society. This erosion of democratic checks and the marginalization of critical voices, activists, journalists, and NGOs have curtailed the possibility of alternative political narratives and scrutiny. By examining constituency-wise electoral data and socio-demographic trends through geospatial techniques (GIS-based mapping), the study reveals how place-based identity, populism, and post-truth constructs have converged with institutional suppression to reshape Gujarat’s democratic space. The paper argues that the BJP’s dominance is not merely a product of popular support or cultural resonance but also of a deliberate effort to restrict the discursive and institutional arenas of dissent. The Gujarat model thus emerges as a case study in competitive authoritarianism masked within electoral legitimacy, raising urgent concerns for the health of India’s democracy.