<p>Due to its strategic location, Salah al-Din was one of the first governorates captured by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Syria (ISIS) during the summer of 2014. Additionally, Tikrit, the capital of the governorate, is regarded as a potential area of ​​conflict and violence in Iraq, owing to the diverse local actors with differing ideologies, such as the Iraqi Security Forces, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and other non-state organizations. Hence, the present study aims to assess the alterations in the region's land systems resulting from the conflict with ISIS. Consequently, this study examined the impact of conflicts on land use and land cover (LULC) in the Tikrit District from 2013 to 2017 utilizing a post-conflict land use planning approach. We employed Landsat satellite data and the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to determine the temporal trends of LULC changes (LULCC). Furthermore, we utilized the Land Change Modeler to identify the spatial patterns of LULCC in the study area. The results indicated that the SVM algorithm provided excellent accuracy for the LULC maps, achieving high kappa coefficients of 0.893, 0.873, and 0.870. The change detection analysis revealed that the onset of conflict in 2015 resulted in a reduction of 12.49 km<sup>2</sup> (15.8%) in built-up areas, a decrease of 349.9 km<sup>2</sup> (76.7%) in vegetation cover, and a loss of 47.09 km<sup>2</sup> (33.5%) in cropland. Moreover, findings confirmed that the war did not have a substantial effect on forest cover. However, in the post-conflict period, LULCC became more pronounced, with increases of 873.9% (579.4 km<sup>2</sup>) in built-up areas and 449.2% (419.6 km<sup>2</sup>) in cropland categories. Our results highlight the critical need for a comprehensive understanding of LULC transformations within the Tikrit District, an area that has been overlooked during the post-conflict period. This understanding is essential for formulating effective and long-term strategies aimed at post-conflict recovery and sustainable development.</p>

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Assessing the impact of ISIS armed insurgency on land use and land cover in Tikrit District, Salah al-Din Governorate of Iraq

  • Ali Mohammed Fadhil,
  • Abolfazl Ganbari,
  • Khalil Valizadeh Kamran

摘要

Due to its strategic location, Salah al-Din was one of the first governorates captured by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Syria (ISIS) during the summer of 2014. Additionally, Tikrit, the capital of the governorate, is regarded as a potential area of ​​conflict and violence in Iraq, owing to the diverse local actors with differing ideologies, such as the Iraqi Security Forces, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and other non-state organizations. Hence, the present study aims to assess the alterations in the region's land systems resulting from the conflict with ISIS. Consequently, this study examined the impact of conflicts on land use and land cover (LULC) in the Tikrit District from 2013 to 2017 utilizing a post-conflict land use planning approach. We employed Landsat satellite data and the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to determine the temporal trends of LULC changes (LULCC). Furthermore, we utilized the Land Change Modeler to identify the spatial patterns of LULCC in the study area. The results indicated that the SVM algorithm provided excellent accuracy for the LULC maps, achieving high kappa coefficients of 0.893, 0.873, and 0.870. The change detection analysis revealed that the onset of conflict in 2015 resulted in a reduction of 12.49 km2 (15.8%) in built-up areas, a decrease of 349.9 km2 (76.7%) in vegetation cover, and a loss of 47.09 km2 (33.5%) in cropland. Moreover, findings confirmed that the war did not have a substantial effect on forest cover. However, in the post-conflict period, LULCC became more pronounced, with increases of 873.9% (579.4 km2) in built-up areas and 449.2% (419.6 km2) in cropland categories. Our results highlight the critical need for a comprehensive understanding of LULC transformations within the Tikrit District, an area that has been overlooked during the post-conflict period. This understanding is essential for formulating effective and long-term strategies aimed at post-conflict recovery and sustainable development.