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<p>Over the past two decades, agricultural demand has driven significant increases in food and land values. This study examined land value trends in Argentina's expanding agricultural belt, focusing on the dry periphery and its correlation with the more humid core. Analyzing real estate data (2000–2020), we found that core land values doubled, reaching levels comparable to the agricultural cores of the US and Brazil by 2018–2020. Periphery’s value, meanwhile, appreciated rapidly in the first years, but stabilized afterward at levels of 35–40% of those in the core, converging with those observed in the dry peripheries of the US and Brazil. The stagnation of agricultural land values in Argentina's periphery, despite rising productivity, did not respond to increasing costs or declining grain prices. We suggest that the observed stagnation is the result of long-term agricultural perceptions in terms of production limitations associated with climate risks and/or regulations. The fact that the periphery-core land valuation is lower than the periphery-core productivity and profit suggests that Argentina's agricultural frontier is advancing conservatively and is driven by realized profit rather than speculation.</p>

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Land values and agricultural expansion into dry regions of Argentina

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月1日

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  • Ana Laura Llanes,
  • Juan Ignacio Whitworth-Hulse,
  • Victoria A. Marchesini,
  • Esteban G. Jobbágy

摘要

Over the past two decades, agricultural demand has driven significant increases in food and land values. This study examined land value trends in Argentina's expanding agricultural belt, focusing on the dry periphery and its correlation with the more humid core. Analyzing real estate data (2000–2020), we found that core land values doubled, reaching levels comparable to the agricultural cores of the US and Brazil by 2018–2020. Periphery’s value, meanwhile, appreciated rapidly in the first years, but stabilized afterward at levels of 35–40% of those in the core, converging with those observed in the dry peripheries of the US and Brazil. The stagnation of agricultural land values in Argentina's periphery, despite rising productivity, did not respond to increasing costs or declining grain prices. We suggest that the observed stagnation is the result of long-term agricultural perceptions in terms of production limitations associated with climate risks and/or regulations. The fact that the periphery-core land valuation is lower than the periphery-core productivity and profit suggests that Argentina's agricultural frontier is advancing conservatively and is driven by realized profit rather than speculation.