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<p>This study aims to investigate the differentiated impact of the Global Health Crisis (GHC) on the financial markets of Turkey and Poland, considering the influence of EUR/TRY and EUR/PLN exchange rate volatility in 2019 and 2022 on stock market indices. Employing correlation coefficients and difference analysis on daily data of the BIST100 and WIG indices, the research compares market reactions pre- and post-pandemic. The analysis reveals distinct responses: relative stability in Poland versus significant changes in Turkey after the pandemic. These divergent reactions are attributed to the dominant types of capital flows in each country – volatile foreign portfolio investment in Turkey and more stable foreign direct investment in Poland. The study adds value by systematically comparing these markets with contrasting capital flow structures and theoretical underpinnings (stock-driven vs. flow-driven models), identifying shifts in market behavior following the GHC, and discussing their implications for understanding emerging market resilience.</p>

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Capital Flows and Market Resilience: a Comparative Study of Turkey and Poland During the Global Health Crisis

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月14日

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  • Cezary Bolek,
  • Monika Bolek,
  • Burcu Zengin

摘要

This study aims to investigate the differentiated impact of the Global Health Crisis (GHC) on the financial markets of Turkey and Poland, considering the influence of EUR/TRY and EUR/PLN exchange rate volatility in 2019 and 2022 on stock market indices. Employing correlation coefficients and difference analysis on daily data of the BIST100 and WIG indices, the research compares market reactions pre- and post-pandemic. The analysis reveals distinct responses: relative stability in Poland versus significant changes in Turkey after the pandemic. These divergent reactions are attributed to the dominant types of capital flows in each country – volatile foreign portfolio investment in Turkey and more stable foreign direct investment in Poland. The study adds value by systematically comparing these markets with contrasting capital flow structures and theoretical underpinnings (stock-driven vs. flow-driven models), identifying shifts in market behavior following the GHC, and discussing their implications for understanding emerging market resilience.