<p>A common object to describe the extremal dependence of a <i>d</i>-variate random vector <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\varvec{X}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="bold-italic">X</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is the stable tail dependence function <i>L</i>. Various parametric models have emerged, with a popular subclass consisting of those stable tail dependence functions that arise for linear and max-linear factor models with heavy tailed factors. The stable tail dependence function is then parameterized by a <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(d \times K\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>d</mi> <mo>×</mo> <mi>K</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> matrix <i>A</i>, where <i>K</i> is the number of factors and where <i>A</i> can be interpreted as a factor loading matrix. We study estimation of <i>L</i> under an additional assumption on <i>A</i> called the ‘pure variable assumption’. Both <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(K \in \{1, \dots , d\}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>K</mi> <mo>∈</mo> <mo stretchy="false">{</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mo>⋯</mo> <mo>,</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mo stretchy="false">}</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(A \in [0, \infty )^{d \times K}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>A</mi> <mo>∈</mo> <msup> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">[</mo> <mn>0</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mi>∞</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>d</mi> <mo>×</mo> <mi>K</mi> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> are treated as unknown, which constitutes an unconventional parameter space that does not fit into common estimation frameworks. We suggest two algorithms that allow for estimation of <i>K</i> and <i>A</i>, and provide finite sample guarantees for both algorithms. Remarkably, the guarantees allow for the case where the dimension <i>d</i> is larger than the sample size <i>n</i>. The results are illustrated with numerical experiments and two case studies.</p>

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Structured linear factor models for tail dependence

  • Alexis Boulin,
  • Axel Bücher

摘要

A common object to describe the extremal dependence of a d-variate random vector \(\varvec{X}\) X is the stable tail dependence function L. Various parametric models have emerged, with a popular subclass consisting of those stable tail dependence functions that arise for linear and max-linear factor models with heavy tailed factors. The stable tail dependence function is then parameterized by a \(d \times K\) d × K matrix A, where K is the number of factors and where A can be interpreted as a factor loading matrix. We study estimation of L under an additional assumption on A called the ‘pure variable assumption’. Both \(K \in \{1, \dots , d\}\) K { 1 , , d } and \(A \in [0, \infty )^{d \times K}\) A [ 0 , ) d × K are treated as unknown, which constitutes an unconventional parameter space that does not fit into common estimation frameworks. We suggest two algorithms that allow for estimation of K and A, and provide finite sample guarantees for both algorithms. Remarkably, the guarantees allow for the case where the dimension d is larger than the sample size n. The results are illustrated with numerical experiments and two case studies.