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<p>Arguing <i>Modus Tollens</i> with conditional probabilities in place of conditionals is generally invalid. There are, however, some simple premises that can be added to this form of argument to make it valid. Why these premises make this form of argument valid can be seen by observing the mathematical relationship between a conditional probability and its contrapositive conditional probability. Having a valid argument form for conditional probabilities that is like <i>Modus Tollens</i> may be useful when arguing for a negative, for example, arguing that certain unobserved things probably don’t exist because, if they did exist, they probably would have been observed.</p>

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Arguing Modus Tollens with Conditional Probabilities in Place of Conditionals

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月6日

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  • MacKenzie Cumings

摘要

Arguing Modus Tollens with conditional probabilities in place of conditionals is generally invalid. There are, however, some simple premises that can be added to this form of argument to make it valid. Why these premises make this form of argument valid can be seen by observing the mathematical relationship between a conditional probability and its contrapositive conditional probability. Having a valid argument form for conditional probabilities that is like Modus Tollens may be useful when arguing for a negative, for example, arguing that certain unobserved things probably don’t exist because, if they did exist, they probably would have been observed.