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<p>The dairy sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the global food system, yet whole-process emission assessments remain limited, with most prior studies focusing solely on raw milk production. This study quantified the whole-process GHG emissions of China’s dairy sector over 2010–2023 and developed targeted decarbonization strategies to 2060. Total GHG emissions exhibited a three-phase trend, peaking at 75.56 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq in 2015 and rebounding to 67.95 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq in 2023, while emission intensity dropped 31.6% from its 2012 peak (3.04&#xa0;kg CO<sub>2</sub>-eq/(kg milk)) to 2.14&#xa0;kg CO<sub>2</sub>-eq/(kg milk) in 2023. The production efficiency improvements in the dairy sector are insufficient to offset the impact of the sector’s expansion. Marked regional disparities in total emissions and intensity were observed, and 2023 whole-process emissions were dominated by production (79.5%), followed by processing (13.9%) and downstream supply chains (6.7%). Using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and single-factor decomposition, we identified economic growth and dairy cow inventory expansion as key drivers, with dairy cow inventory as the most impactful activity-level factor. Five mitigation scenarios were designed to explore decarbonization pathways. Integrating whole-process high-efficiency technologies could reduce emissions to 59.24 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq by 2030 and 23.40 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq by 2060. These findings provide a holistic basis for understanding emission dynamics and formulating policy-relevant strategies to advance carbon neutrality in China’s dairy sector.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Whole-process greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonization pathways for China’s dairy sector: a life cycle and scenario-based assessment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月5日

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  • Bobo Wu,
  • Bo Zhang,
  • Xiaoxuan Bai,
  • Weijun Wang,
  • Zhiliang Yao,
  • Xin Li

摘要

The dairy sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the global food system, yet whole-process emission assessments remain limited, with most prior studies focusing solely on raw milk production. This study quantified the whole-process GHG emissions of China’s dairy sector over 2010–2023 and developed targeted decarbonization strategies to 2060. Total GHG emissions exhibited a three-phase trend, peaking at 75.56 Mt CO2-eq in 2015 and rebounding to 67.95 Mt CO2-eq in 2023, while emission intensity dropped 31.6% from its 2012 peak (3.04 kg CO2-eq/(kg milk)) to 2.14 kg CO2-eq/(kg milk) in 2023. The production efficiency improvements in the dairy sector are insufficient to offset the impact of the sector’s expansion. Marked regional disparities in total emissions and intensity were observed, and 2023 whole-process emissions were dominated by production (79.5%), followed by processing (13.9%) and downstream supply chains (6.7%). Using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and single-factor decomposition, we identified economic growth and dairy cow inventory expansion as key drivers, with dairy cow inventory as the most impactful activity-level factor. Five mitigation scenarios were designed to explore decarbonization pathways. Integrating whole-process high-efficiency technologies could reduce emissions to 59.24 Mt CO2-eq by 2030 and 23.40 Mt CO2-eq by 2060. These findings provide a holistic basis for understanding emission dynamics and formulating policy-relevant strategies to advance carbon neutrality in China’s dairy sector.

Graphical abstract