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<p>China’s early carbon markets combined mandatory compliance with relatively limited trading, raising the question of whether industrial responses differed across ownership and competitive settings. Using annual data for 35 Chinese industrial subsectors from 2005 to 2021, this study constructs a four-dimensional industrial green and low-carbon transformation (IGT) index through entropy weighting and estimates an industry-level difference-in-differences model. The preferred specification indicates that, after 2013, IGT rose by 0.039 units more in exposed subsectors than in the comparison group. The estimate remains positive and statistically significant across alternative samples, index-construction procedures, placebo assignments, additional covariates, and lagged-control specifications. Separate interaction models associate higher state-related ownership participation and stronger industrial competition with larger Policy estimates. In the complete mean-centered specification, the positive three-way interaction shows that the competition-related slope of the Policy estimate becomes more positive as state-related ownership participation rises. The results therefore document joint conditional moderation by ownership composition and competitive intensity. They do not imply an unconditional government–market synergy.</p>

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Carbon trading and industrial green transformation in China: industry-level evidence on ownership composition and competition

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月3日

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  • Juan Qian,
  • Yongjing Shang,
  • Ru Sha,
  • Tingting Gong

摘要

China’s early carbon markets combined mandatory compliance with relatively limited trading, raising the question of whether industrial responses differed across ownership and competitive settings. Using annual data for 35 Chinese industrial subsectors from 2005 to 2021, this study constructs a four-dimensional industrial green and low-carbon transformation (IGT) index through entropy weighting and estimates an industry-level difference-in-differences model. The preferred specification indicates that, after 2013, IGT rose by 0.039 units more in exposed subsectors than in the comparison group. The estimate remains positive and statistically significant across alternative samples, index-construction procedures, placebo assignments, additional covariates, and lagged-control specifications. Separate interaction models associate higher state-related ownership participation and stronger industrial competition with larger Policy estimates. In the complete mean-centered specification, the positive three-way interaction shows that the competition-related slope of the Policy estimate becomes more positive as state-related ownership participation rises. The results therefore document joint conditional moderation by ownership composition and competitive intensity. They do not imply an unconditional government–market synergy.