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<p>Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) jointly shape regional carbon storage (CS), and clarifying their interactive effects is essential for advancing carbon neutrality efforts. Taking the Chaohu Lake Basin (CLB) as a case study, this research integrates future climate data under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with socioeconomic driving factors into the PLUS model to predict land use patterns for 2030–2050, and further applies the InVEST model to estimate the future spatiotemporal distribution of CS in the basin. The key findings are summarized as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the areas of cultivated land and water bodies in the CLB changed by − 7.60% and + 1.84% respectively, while construction land expanded drastically by 56.66%. Regional CS decreased by 4,791.29 kt over this period, with the most significant losses observed between 2005 and 2010. (2) Under the Natural Development and Urban Development scenarios in 2050, it is expected that cultivated land and water areas will keep decreasing, but forests and built-up areas will increase. On the contrary, Ecological Protection and Cultivated Land Protection scenarios are able to alleviate these losses. (3) In the SSP1-2.6 - Ecological Protection scenario, regional CS is expected to reach a peak of 457,886.3 kt by 2050, the highest value across all scenarios, emphasizing its role in shaping sustainable spatial planning in the CLB. In the short-to-medium term, LUCC is the dominant driver of CS dynamics, rather than climate change. This study illustrates how integrating CMIP6-PLUS-InVEST models supports a robust assessment of prospective CS driven by the interactive impacts of climate and LUCC.</p>

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Spatiotemporal evolution and multi-scenario simulation of carbon storage in the Chaohu Lake Basin under coupled climate-land use change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

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  • Ting Zhang,
  • Yuyang Xian,
  • Huaming Xie,
  • Qianjiao Wu,
  • Chao Yang,
  • Mingxing Yu,
  • Jiadong Wu,
  • Lihang Xie,
  • Zuye Xie

摘要

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) jointly shape regional carbon storage (CS), and clarifying their interactive effects is essential for advancing carbon neutrality efforts. Taking the Chaohu Lake Basin (CLB) as a case study, this research integrates future climate data under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with socioeconomic driving factors into the PLUS model to predict land use patterns for 2030–2050, and further applies the InVEST model to estimate the future spatiotemporal distribution of CS in the basin. The key findings are summarized as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the areas of cultivated land and water bodies in the CLB changed by − 7.60% and + 1.84% respectively, while construction land expanded drastically by 56.66%. Regional CS decreased by 4,791.29 kt over this period, with the most significant losses observed between 2005 and 2010. (2) Under the Natural Development and Urban Development scenarios in 2050, it is expected that cultivated land and water areas will keep decreasing, but forests and built-up areas will increase. On the contrary, Ecological Protection and Cultivated Land Protection scenarios are able to alleviate these losses. (3) In the SSP1-2.6 - Ecological Protection scenario, regional CS is expected to reach a peak of 457,886.3 kt by 2050, the highest value across all scenarios, emphasizing its role in shaping sustainable spatial planning in the CLB. In the short-to-medium term, LUCC is the dominant driver of CS dynamics, rather than climate change. This study illustrates how integrating CMIP6-PLUS-InVEST models supports a robust assessment of prospective CS driven by the interactive impacts of climate and LUCC.