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<p>Ammonia is not only a central medium of the global nitrogen cycle but also a critical air pollutant closely associated with multiple environmental issues. Clarifying its primary sources, emission characteristics, and variation trends is essential for sustainable ecological development. As a major hotspot for agricultural ammonia emissions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region lacks sufficient research on the dynamic trends and spatiotemporal variability of its agricultural ammonia emissions. To fill this gap, this study employed the emission factor method to quantify agricultural ammonia emissions in the YRD from 2000 to 2019. Results showed that emissions exhibited a significant overall downward trend, peaking at 553.10 kt·yr<sup>− 1</sup> in 2005, and decreasing to a minimum of 249.76 kt·yr<sup>− 1</sup> in 2019, dominated by livestock breeding (75.37%) and nitrogen fertilizer applications (24.63%). The spatial pattern presented persistent north-south heterogeneity with decreasing interannual spatial variability. Cities like Suzhou had higher emissions exceeding 100 kt·yr<sup>− 1</sup>, whereas Zhoushan and Huangshan showed relatively lower emissions. Spatial autocorrelation analysis identified Huaibei, a low-emission cold spot in high-emission zones, as a regional emission reduction reference. Driven by adjustments in agricultural practices, population changes, and policy implementation, the ammonia emission intensity decreased with a compound annual decline rate of 9.30%, reflecting the region’s holistic socio-economic progress. Attribution analysis further revealed that livestock farming strongly drove emissions (Kendall’s τ = 0.86, 95% CI [0.542, 1.000], <i>p</i> &lt; 0.0001), while population, output value, and GDP were inversely correlated (τ=−0.65 to − 0.60, 95% CI [− 0.97, − 0.33] to [− 0.92, − 0.28], <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). This study provides a long-term spatiotemporal analysis of ammonia emissions in the YRD, uncovers the indicative relationship between agricultural ammonia emissions and ecosystem sustainability, and offers crucial technical support for regional ammonia emission management.</p>

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Decadal spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural ammonia emissions in the yangtze river delta (2000–2019): Patterns, drivers, and sustainability implications

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月7日

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  • Tianling Li,
  • Tongtong Zhang,
  • Wentao Ji,
  • Jianyin Huang,
  • Yunyun Zheng,
  • Wenjun Zhang,
  • Zhaoxing Li,
  • Weishou Shen

摘要

Ammonia is not only a central medium of the global nitrogen cycle but also a critical air pollutant closely associated with multiple environmental issues. Clarifying its primary sources, emission characteristics, and variation trends is essential for sustainable ecological development. As a major hotspot for agricultural ammonia emissions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region lacks sufficient research on the dynamic trends and spatiotemporal variability of its agricultural ammonia emissions. To fill this gap, this study employed the emission factor method to quantify agricultural ammonia emissions in the YRD from 2000 to 2019. Results showed that emissions exhibited a significant overall downward trend, peaking at 553.10 kt·yr− 1 in 2005, and decreasing to a minimum of 249.76 kt·yr− 1 in 2019, dominated by livestock breeding (75.37%) and nitrogen fertilizer applications (24.63%). The spatial pattern presented persistent north-south heterogeneity with decreasing interannual spatial variability. Cities like Suzhou had higher emissions exceeding 100 kt·yr− 1, whereas Zhoushan and Huangshan showed relatively lower emissions. Spatial autocorrelation analysis identified Huaibei, a low-emission cold spot in high-emission zones, as a regional emission reduction reference. Driven by adjustments in agricultural practices, population changes, and policy implementation, the ammonia emission intensity decreased with a compound annual decline rate of 9.30%, reflecting the region’s holistic socio-economic progress. Attribution analysis further revealed that livestock farming strongly drove emissions (Kendall’s τ = 0.86, 95% CI [0.542, 1.000], p < 0.0001), while population, output value, and GDP were inversely correlated (τ=−0.65 to − 0.60, 95% CI [− 0.97, − 0.33] to [− 0.92, − 0.28], p < 0.001). This study provides a long-term spatiotemporal analysis of ammonia emissions in the YRD, uncovers the indicative relationship between agricultural ammonia emissions and ecosystem sustainability, and offers crucial technical support for regional ammonia emission management.