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<p>Montane forest ecosystems are increasingly exposed to abrupt climate variability, yet the temporal mechanisms underlying carbon (C) persistence remain poorly understood. We quantified forest C resilience across elevation (70–2157&#xa0;m) and management gradients in the Eastern Himalayas using 125 field plots and a 20-year remote sensing time series (2001–2020). Total mean ecosystem C stock was 257.14 ± 54.21 Mg C ha⁻¹, with soil organic C contributing 54% (139.62 ± 43.54 Mg C ha⁻¹) to 45&#xa0;cm depth. Among all sites, the temporal stability of vegetation dynamics metrics explained 22% of the variance in C stock compared with mean climate conditions (34%). Distributed lag non-linear models revealed significant climate memory, with lag effects persisting 6–8 months for rainfall and temperature and up to 8.4 months for soil moisture. Compound drought–heat events produced synergistic impacts, with average immediate NDVI declines of 12.4% and 16.8% at high elevations, and recovery times exceeding 24 months. Community-managed forests demonstrated significantly greater (23%) resistance to climate anomalies (0.81 vs. 0.69, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), 38% faster recovery, and 14% higher C realisation efficiency despite comparable mean C stocks. Structural equation modelling identified vegetation stability as the strongest direct predictor of C stocks (β = 0.42), with management moderating the stability–C pathway. These findings demonstrate that ecosystem temporal stability and governance structures jointly regulate forest C resilience. Integrating climate-responsive ecological processes with adaptive community-based forest management can strengthen long-term C persistence and enhance the sustainability of mountain forest ecosystems under accelerating climate change.</p>

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Temporal stability and climate memory regulate forest carbon persistence across elevation and governance gradients in the Eastern Himalayas: Implications for sustainable forest management

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月2日

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  • Rajdeep Chanda,
  • Shri Kant Tripathi

摘要

Montane forest ecosystems are increasingly exposed to abrupt climate variability, yet the temporal mechanisms underlying carbon (C) persistence remain poorly understood. We quantified forest C resilience across elevation (70–2157 m) and management gradients in the Eastern Himalayas using 125 field plots and a 20-year remote sensing time series (2001–2020). Total mean ecosystem C stock was 257.14 ± 54.21 Mg C ha⁻¹, with soil organic C contributing 54% (139.62 ± 43.54 Mg C ha⁻¹) to 45 cm depth. Among all sites, the temporal stability of vegetation dynamics metrics explained 22% of the variance in C stock compared with mean climate conditions (34%). Distributed lag non-linear models revealed significant climate memory, with lag effects persisting 6–8 months for rainfall and temperature and up to 8.4 months for soil moisture. Compound drought–heat events produced synergistic impacts, with average immediate NDVI declines of 12.4% and 16.8% at high elevations, and recovery times exceeding 24 months. Community-managed forests demonstrated significantly greater (23%) resistance to climate anomalies (0.81 vs. 0.69, p < 0.001), 38% faster recovery, and 14% higher C realisation efficiency despite comparable mean C stocks. Structural equation modelling identified vegetation stability as the strongest direct predictor of C stocks (β = 0.42), with management moderating the stability–C pathway. These findings demonstrate that ecosystem temporal stability and governance structures jointly regulate forest C resilience. Integrating climate-responsive ecological processes with adaptive community-based forest management can strengthen long-term C persistence and enhance the sustainability of mountain forest ecosystems under accelerating climate change.