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<p>Managing the water–energy–food–carbon (WEFC) nexus is increasingly critical for sustainable development in basins where socio-economic change, climate pressures and fragmented governance intensify cross-sector trade-offs. Focusing on the Middle Yellow River Basin (Shaanxi, Shanxi and Henan), this study proposes an integrated framework that links tele-coupled resource accounting, indicator-based resilience assessment and policy scenario analysis. An environmentally extended multi-regional input–output model quantifies interprovincial and extra-regional trade in embodied water, energy, food and carbon. A multidimensional WEFC resilience index, including resistance, adaptability and recovery, is constructed by selecting key indicators via elastic-net regularization and deriving composite scores using a differential evolution–projection pursuit evaluation scheme. To overcome the critical technical bottleneck of decoupling system simulation from optimal regulation, a coupled system dynamic–agent-based model is developed to incorporate macro-policy planning and multi-actor constraints, simulating governance and technology interventions to compare feasible policy portfolios. Results show that all three provinces are net exporters of embodied energy, grain and carbon, while Shanxi and Shaanxi remain net importers of embodied water and Henan shifts from exporter (1.25&#xa0;billion m³ net outflow) to importer (3.75&#xa0;billion m³ net inflow). Although aggregate WEFC resilience improved moderately, spatial disparities persist: Shaanxi demonstrated the strongest resistance (mean score 0.716) and overall Resilience Index (RI = 0.754), Henan led in adaptability (0.815), while Shanxi lagged (RI = 0.669). Scenario simulations confirmed that strengthened regulation and sustained R&amp;D investment deliver the largest gains (RI uplift of 12%), outweighing the marginal contributions of isolated household actions (RI uplift of 2%). The framework offers decision support for integrated resource governance and low-carbon transition in the MYRB.</p>

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Integrated water–energy–food–carbon nexus model for resilience assessment in the Middle Yellow River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

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  • Yiyang Li,
  • Hongchong Wang,
  • Hongrui Wang,
  • Li Zhang,
  • Yafeng Yang,
  • Yuhan Ding,
  • Xinlong Du

摘要

Managing the water–energy–food–carbon (WEFC) nexus is increasingly critical for sustainable development in basins where socio-economic change, climate pressures and fragmented governance intensify cross-sector trade-offs. Focusing on the Middle Yellow River Basin (Shaanxi, Shanxi and Henan), this study proposes an integrated framework that links tele-coupled resource accounting, indicator-based resilience assessment and policy scenario analysis. An environmentally extended multi-regional input–output model quantifies interprovincial and extra-regional trade in embodied water, energy, food and carbon. A multidimensional WEFC resilience index, including resistance, adaptability and recovery, is constructed by selecting key indicators via elastic-net regularization and deriving composite scores using a differential evolution–projection pursuit evaluation scheme. To overcome the critical technical bottleneck of decoupling system simulation from optimal regulation, a coupled system dynamic–agent-based model is developed to incorporate macro-policy planning and multi-actor constraints, simulating governance and technology interventions to compare feasible policy portfolios. Results show that all three provinces are net exporters of embodied energy, grain and carbon, while Shanxi and Shaanxi remain net importers of embodied water and Henan shifts from exporter (1.25 billion m³ net outflow) to importer (3.75 billion m³ net inflow). Although aggregate WEFC resilience improved moderately, spatial disparities persist: Shaanxi demonstrated the strongest resistance (mean score 0.716) and overall Resilience Index (RI = 0.754), Henan led in adaptability (0.815), while Shanxi lagged (RI = 0.669). Scenario simulations confirmed that strengthened regulation and sustained R&D investment deliver the largest gains (RI uplift of 12%), outweighing the marginal contributions of isolated household actions (RI uplift of 2%). The framework offers decision support for integrated resource governance and low-carbon transition in the MYRB.