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<p>While carbon pricing mechanisms have traditionally focused on industrial sectors, the role of voluntary personal carbon trading (PCT) in mobilizing individual climate action remains insufficiently understood. In particular, rigorous empirical evidence on its environmental effectiveness, behavioral mechanisms, and associated public health co-benefits is still limited. Drawing on a provincial panel dataset spanning 2005–2022, this research employs the Synthetic Control Method to conduct the earliest comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of China’s Carbon Generalized System of Preferences (CGSP) initiative. A reduction of 0.024 tons in per capita carbon emissions and a substantial drop of 1.976&#xa0;µg/m³ in PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels are attributable to CGSP program participation, with post-2016 witnessing stronger outcomes. Reducing human contact with particulate contaminants in the air yields meaningful benefits for both public health and overall social prosperity. Mechanism analysis further reveals that the increased adoption of green transportation serves as the primary channel through which the policy operates, whereas residential energy consumption plays a more limited mediating role. These findings offer actionable insights for decision-makers working to fulfill lasting priorities across the fiscal, natural, and social spheres.</p>

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Quantifying the dual benefits of China’s first voluntary personal carbon trading: emission reduction, air quality improvements and health benefits

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Diyi Liu,
  • Junteng Liu,
  • Tong Feng

摘要

While carbon pricing mechanisms have traditionally focused on industrial sectors, the role of voluntary personal carbon trading (PCT) in mobilizing individual climate action remains insufficiently understood. In particular, rigorous empirical evidence on its environmental effectiveness, behavioral mechanisms, and associated public health co-benefits is still limited. Drawing on a provincial panel dataset spanning 2005–2022, this research employs the Synthetic Control Method to conduct the earliest comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of China’s Carbon Generalized System of Preferences (CGSP) initiative. A reduction of 0.024 tons in per capita carbon emissions and a substantial drop of 1.976 µg/m³ in PM2.5 levels are attributable to CGSP program participation, with post-2016 witnessing stronger outcomes. Reducing human contact with particulate contaminants in the air yields meaningful benefits for both public health and overall social prosperity. Mechanism analysis further reveals that the increased adoption of green transportation serves as the primary channel through which the policy operates, whereas residential energy consumption plays a more limited mediating role. These findings offer actionable insights for decision-makers working to fulfill lasting priorities across the fiscal, natural, and social spheres.