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<p>Increasing extreme weather under climate change has aroused growing concern, yet how crops respond to compound extremes in China is not well understood. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of summer extreme heat events, droughts, and compound drought-heat events from 1970 to 2022. It further evaluates their impacts on maize production, yield, and seeded area across China’s main maize-producing areas. Results indicate a significant increasing trend in the standardized temperature index (STI) alongside less pronounced changes in the standardized precipitation index (SPI). A widespread negative correlation between STI and SPI in northern regions, facilitated the frequent occurrence of compound extremes, while droughts peaked in parts of North China and Southwest China. Employing superposed epoch analysis, we show that historical compound drought-heat events reduced maize production in China on average by 9.66%, approximately three times greater than those caused by single events isolated heat (3.04%) or drought (2.73%). Production losses were primarily driven by yield declines, with minor changes in seeded area. This suggests that adjustments in seeded area provided limited buffering capacity against these compound stressors. Regionally, Northwest and Northeast China experienced the most severe production declines, reaching 17% and 12.31%, respectively. Furthermore, the sensitivity of maize production to compound events intensified over time, from -7.44% (1970–1995) to -10.68% (1996–2022). This study quantifies that compound drought-heat events threaten China’s maize production far more than single extremes, primarily through yield losses. It reveals growing and spatially uneven risks that highlight the need for spatially targeted adaptation strategies.</p>

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Compound drought-heat impacts on maize productivity in the main maize-producing areas of China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月2日

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  • Tingyan Wang,
  • Lingxin Bao,
  • Xiaojie Liu,
  • Honglong Chen,
  • Shengquan Wang,
  • Hanrong He,
  • Xiaowei Zhang

摘要

Increasing extreme weather under climate change has aroused growing concern, yet how crops respond to compound extremes in China is not well understood. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of summer extreme heat events, droughts, and compound drought-heat events from 1970 to 2022. It further evaluates their impacts on maize production, yield, and seeded area across China’s main maize-producing areas. Results indicate a significant increasing trend in the standardized temperature index (STI) alongside less pronounced changes in the standardized precipitation index (SPI). A widespread negative correlation between STI and SPI in northern regions, facilitated the frequent occurrence of compound extremes, while droughts peaked in parts of North China and Southwest China. Employing superposed epoch analysis, we show that historical compound drought-heat events reduced maize production in China on average by 9.66%, approximately three times greater than those caused by single events isolated heat (3.04%) or drought (2.73%). Production losses were primarily driven by yield declines, with minor changes in seeded area. This suggests that adjustments in seeded area provided limited buffering capacity against these compound stressors. Regionally, Northwest and Northeast China experienced the most severe production declines, reaching 17% and 12.31%, respectively. Furthermore, the sensitivity of maize production to compound events intensified over time, from -7.44% (1970–1995) to -10.68% (1996–2022). This study quantifies that compound drought-heat events threaten China’s maize production far more than single extremes, primarily through yield losses. It reveals growing and spatially uneven risks that highlight the need for spatially targeted adaptation strategies.