<p>Food sustainability and food security are major challenges in Central Asia, where vegetable production supports nutrition and rural livelihoods but faces growing climate threats. At the same time, the rapid growth of ICTs offers opportunities to enhance agricultural productivity, innovation, and climate resilience, supporting progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals related to zero hunger, innovation, and climate action. However, empirical evidence on how ICTs interact with climate change to shape vegetable production remains limited. This study examines the direct, moderating, asymmetric, and causal effects of ICTs and climate change on vegetable production in Central Asia from 2001 to 2024, using fixed effects, Method of Moments Quantile Regression, Generalized Method of Moments, Panel Corrected Standard Errors, and Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality tests. The results show that ICT adoption, including internet access, mobile phone penetration, and fixed telephone use, positively and significantly influences vegetable production, while temperature variability exerts a significant negative effect. The quantile estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity across low, middle, and high vegetable producing countries, and the moderation results indicate that ICTs mitigate adverse impacts of temperature variability. The causality analysis reveals bidirectional causal relationships between vegetable production and ICT indicators, as well as between vegetable production and temperature change, confirming dynamic feedback effects. Moreover, mediation analysis identifies farmer education, agricultural trade, and agricultural credit as key transmission channels through which ICTs improve vegetable production. The findings highlight the policy importance of integrating digital development into climate adaptation strategies to promote sustainable vegetable production and food security in Central Asia.</p>

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Assessing the impact of information and communication technologies and climate change interactions on vegetable production: evidence from Central Asia

  • Abdulkhay Karimov,
  • Abdul Salami Bah,
  • Abdulla Primov,
  • Ruan Junhu

摘要

Food sustainability and food security are major challenges in Central Asia, where vegetable production supports nutrition and rural livelihoods but faces growing climate threats. At the same time, the rapid growth of ICTs offers opportunities to enhance agricultural productivity, innovation, and climate resilience, supporting progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals related to zero hunger, innovation, and climate action. However, empirical evidence on how ICTs interact with climate change to shape vegetable production remains limited. This study examines the direct, moderating, asymmetric, and causal effects of ICTs and climate change on vegetable production in Central Asia from 2001 to 2024, using fixed effects, Method of Moments Quantile Regression, Generalized Method of Moments, Panel Corrected Standard Errors, and Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality tests. The results show that ICT adoption, including internet access, mobile phone penetration, and fixed telephone use, positively and significantly influences vegetable production, while temperature variability exerts a significant negative effect. The quantile estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity across low, middle, and high vegetable producing countries, and the moderation results indicate that ICTs mitigate adverse impacts of temperature variability. The causality analysis reveals bidirectional causal relationships between vegetable production and ICT indicators, as well as between vegetable production and temperature change, confirming dynamic feedback effects. Moreover, mediation analysis identifies farmer education, agricultural trade, and agricultural credit as key transmission channels through which ICTs improve vegetable production. The findings highlight the policy importance of integrating digital development into climate adaptation strategies to promote sustainable vegetable production and food security in Central Asia.