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<p>Flash floods pose a significant threat to infrastructure in arid and semi-arid regions like Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. As the Egyptian government intensifies its focus on developing infrastructure and transportation networks in this strategically important region, assessing and mitigating flood risks becomes critical to ensuring the sustainability and safety of these projects. This study focuses on evaluating and predicting flash flood hazards for large-scale infrastructure projects in such regions, investigating the Taba–Bir El-Abd railway line—the largest rail infrastructure project currently under development in Sinai—as a case study. Advanced hydrological modeling tools, including the Hydrologic Engineering Centre-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), were employed to conduct a comprehensive analysis that integrates meteorological, morphological, and hydrological data. Infiltration was estimated using the SCS Curve Number (CN) method. A recent CN map for the Sinai Peninsula was developed to reflect current land use and soil conditions, enabling more accurate runoff modeling for infrastructure design under extreme rainfall events. Flood levels of 0.2 to 0.8&#xa0;m impacted most of the study area, with isolated depths up to 8&#xa0;m, while velocities ranged from 0.21 to 0.6&#xa0;m/s across the area and 0.61 to 2&#xa0;m/s within streams. Ninety-six critical stream-railway intersections were identified for flood risk assessment, with culverts and bridges designed to handle the 100-year storm event plus a 20% climate change buffer. Peak flow discharge rates across these critical intersections ranged significantly, from a minimum of 0.6 m<sup>3</sup>/s to a maximum of 2878 m<sup>3</sup>/s at Wadi El-Arish, underscoring the variability and intensity of flood hazards in the region. The findings highlight flood vulnerabilities along the railway corridor, offering actionable recommendations for resilient infrastructure design and emphasizing the need for hydrological assessments in flood-prone, ecologically sensitive regions.</p>

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Assessment and prediction of flash flood hazards for large-scale infrastructure in arid and semi-arid regions: a case study of the Taba–Bir El-Abd railway project, Sinai, Egypt

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月4日

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  • Tamer A. Gado,
  • Mohamed Elkollaly,
  • Rufayda M. El-Hagrsy,
  • Mahmoud B. Mohameden,
  • Basma A. Shalaby,
  • Bahaa Elboshy

摘要

Flash floods pose a significant threat to infrastructure in arid and semi-arid regions like Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. As the Egyptian government intensifies its focus on developing infrastructure and transportation networks in this strategically important region, assessing and mitigating flood risks becomes critical to ensuring the sustainability and safety of these projects. This study focuses on evaluating and predicting flash flood hazards for large-scale infrastructure projects in such regions, investigating the Taba–Bir El-Abd railway line—the largest rail infrastructure project currently under development in Sinai—as a case study. Advanced hydrological modeling tools, including the Hydrologic Engineering Centre-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), were employed to conduct a comprehensive analysis that integrates meteorological, morphological, and hydrological data. Infiltration was estimated using the SCS Curve Number (CN) method. A recent CN map for the Sinai Peninsula was developed to reflect current land use and soil conditions, enabling more accurate runoff modeling for infrastructure design under extreme rainfall events. Flood levels of 0.2 to 0.8 m impacted most of the study area, with isolated depths up to 8 m, while velocities ranged from 0.21 to 0.6 m/s across the area and 0.61 to 2 m/s within streams. Ninety-six critical stream-railway intersections were identified for flood risk assessment, with culverts and bridges designed to handle the 100-year storm event plus a 20% climate change buffer. Peak flow discharge rates across these critical intersections ranged significantly, from a minimum of 0.6 m3/s to a maximum of 2878 m3/s at Wadi El-Arish, underscoring the variability and intensity of flood hazards in the region. The findings highlight flood vulnerabilities along the railway corridor, offering actionable recommendations for resilient infrastructure design and emphasizing the need for hydrological assessments in flood-prone, ecologically sensitive regions.