Analyzing interprovincial sectoral carbon transfers in China: evidence from 30 provinces and 29 sectors
摘要
China faces increasing pressure to reduce emissions, making it essential to analyze not only interprovincial but also sectoral carbon transfers to clarify emission reduction responsibilities across provinces. This study presents a comprehensive framework integrating a multi-regional input-output model, graph embedding techniques, and network centrality analysis to reveal carbon transfer patterns across 30 Chinese provinces and 29 sectors. Results show that: (1) Sectors within the same province show clear clustering tendencies. (2) Resource-rich provinces exhibit strong interprovincial carbon transfer linkages driven by energy and raw material sectors, while core cities like Beijing and Shanghai act as major consumers characterized by dispersed sectoral carbon inflows. (3) Since 2014, the implementation of national electricity and gas transmission projects has shifted embodied carbon emissions from traditional coal-based regions like Shanxi to emerging energy-exporting provinces like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. (4) Upstream energy and material sectors in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, and Hebei dominate embodied carbon exports, while downstream construction and service sectors in Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong absorb large embodied inflows. (5) Intermediate manufacturing sectors, such as chemical, metal, and electronic equipment manufacturing in Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Guangdong, function as pivotal conduits for embodied carbon transfer between upstream producers and downstream consumers. We recommend enhancing regional coordination and green energy linkages considering spatial heterogeneity, implementing differentiated carbon mitigation strategies based on provincial functional roles, and promoting sector-specific low-carbon transformation to achieve coordinated emission reduction across the supply chain.