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<p>The Asian Water Tower (AWT) region, which sustains nearly 2&#xa0;billion people, faces mounting challenges from climate change, resource imbalances, and fragmented governance, all of which constrain progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To characterize long-term interactions within the water-energy-food nexus (WEFn), an SDG-aligned indicator framework was constructed for 17 countries from 2000 to 2022 and evaluated using an integrated analytical approach that combines the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model, and the Random Forest (RF) model. The results show that although subsystem security and interlinkages have improved, overall coordination remains low, with CCD values fluctuating between 0.49 and 0.55 despite consistently high coupling. Water and food subsystems exhibit the strongest bidirectional feedback, while the energy subsystem remains weakly connected and generates mainly delayed effects. Structural imbalance persists across most countries, with food subsystem development lagging behind progress in water and energy subsystems. Changes in dominant drivers further indicate a regional shift from reliance on land resources and basic infrastructure toward environmental efficiency and reduced energy-related emissions. As the first multi-decadal, transboundary assessment of the WEFn in the AWT region, this study highlights emerging vulnerabilities. It underscores the need for enhanced multiscale governance, institutional collaboration, and strategic resource coordination to advance sustainable development.</p>

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Tracking water-energy-food nexus coordination in the Asian water tower region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Wenmin Ma,
  • Jian Hu,
  • Jörg Rinklebe,
  • Guangjin Zhou,
  • Yizhong Huan,
  • Peng Wang,
  • Jun Li,
  • Guilin Han,
  • Yifan Li

摘要

The Asian Water Tower (AWT) region, which sustains nearly 2 billion people, faces mounting challenges from climate change, resource imbalances, and fragmented governance, all of which constrain progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To characterize long-term interactions within the water-energy-food nexus (WEFn), an SDG-aligned indicator framework was constructed for 17 countries from 2000 to 2022 and evaluated using an integrated analytical approach that combines the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model, and the Random Forest (RF) model. The results show that although subsystem security and interlinkages have improved, overall coordination remains low, with CCD values fluctuating between 0.49 and 0.55 despite consistently high coupling. Water and food subsystems exhibit the strongest bidirectional feedback, while the energy subsystem remains weakly connected and generates mainly delayed effects. Structural imbalance persists across most countries, with food subsystem development lagging behind progress in water and energy subsystems. Changes in dominant drivers further indicate a regional shift from reliance on land resources and basic infrastructure toward environmental efficiency and reduced energy-related emissions. As the first multi-decadal, transboundary assessment of the WEFn in the AWT region, this study highlights emerging vulnerabilities. It underscores the need for enhanced multiscale governance, institutional collaboration, and strategic resource coordination to advance sustainable development.