Digitalization, governance quality, and ICT diffusion as drivers of ecological balance in BRICS: evidence from the inverse load capacity factor
摘要
This study investigates environmental sustainability in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2024, by modelling the ecological footprint-biocapacity ratio, referred to as Inverse Load Capacity factor (ILCF), as an indicator of ecological stress. After conducting panel diagnostics tests, the study estimates long-run relationships using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), while Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) are employed to examine the robustness and stability of the results. The study contributes to the literature in three main ways. First, it adopts the ILCF as a comprehensive measure of ecological imbalance rather than relying on single-pollutant indicators. Second it integrates digital economy development, governance quality and ICT diffusion into a unified cointegration framework to assess their combined effects on environmental pressure. Third, it employs nested model specifications by progressively incorporating trade openness and population growth, while accounting for endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The findings remain robust across FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations. Economic growth has a positive and significant coefficient, suggesting that growth expansion increases ecological pressure. In contrast, digital economy development, stronger governance and ICT penetration exhibit negative and significant elasticities, indicating their role in reducing biocapacity stress. Trade openness and population growth enter positively, reflecting additional environmental strain. The consistency of coefficient signs and magnitudes across alternative estimators strengthens confidence in the empirical findings. Overall, the study highlights digital green technologies, effective governance, and ICT-enabled efficiency as important pathways toward environmental sustainability. It also offers actionable policy implications for emerging economies seeking to balance economic growth with ecological resilience.