The three-stage allocation of carbon emission allowance in China’s provincial power sector
摘要
The equitable and efficient allocation of carbon emission allowances (CEA) in China’s power sector is crucial for China to achieve the national “dual carbon” goals. However, existing allocation approaches often fail to balance regional equity with provincial efficiency. To address this gap, this study proposes a three-stage allocation framework for China’s provincial power sector. Results indicate that the eastern region receives the largest share of CEA, followed by the central and western regions. At the provincial level, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Fujian receive the largest quotas, whereas Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Chongqing receive the smallest. The evaluation based on four allocation principles shows that most provinces perform well in fairness and efficiency, yet exhibit significant sustainability and feasibility gaps. The results of the space of carbon emissions (SCE) reveal that 12 provinces have negative SCE values, implying great future emission reduction pressure. Furthermore, analysis of quota changes shows most provinces with reduced quotas are in the central and eastern regions, while most with increased quotas are in the west, directly indicating a greater emission reduction pressure in the central and eastern regions. Overall, this study provides a scientifically grounded CEA allocation scheme that integrates fairness, efficiency, sustainability, and feasibility, while offering important insights for differentiated climate governance and carbon market design.