<p>The geographically inverted distribution of China’s power resources and loads exacerbates carbon transfers between regions, underscoring the necessity of assessing power carbon emissions from generation and consumption side and formulate rational peaking pathways. This study accounts for carbon emissions from power generation and consumption across 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2022, and analysing the regional carbon transfer and inequality. Furthermore, key drivers of carbon emissions are identified by logarithmic mean divisia index method. Finally, national and provincial emission peaking pathways are simulated by integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with Monte Carlo model. The results reveal: (1) Power carbon emissions continue to rise over the study period, reaching 4666.14 Mt in 2022, with declining intensity but carbon transfers and inequities between provinces are intensifying, and heavy industry is the main emitter on the consumption side. (2) Generation scale is the primary driver of generation carbon emissions, leading to an increase exceeding 1,000 Mt during the periods 2005–2010, 2010–2015, and 2015–2020. Generation efficiency and power structure are the main drivers in reducing carbon emissions. (3) Economic development is the primary driver of the increase in consumption carbon emissions. The impact of these drivers exhibits significant spatio-temporal disparities across different provinces. (4) Only in SSP1, China’s power sector can achieve carbon peaking before 2030, with a peak value of 5213.26–5508.78 Mt and an average peaking time of 2028. Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Guangdong, and Shaanxi’s generation carbon emissions and Shaanxi’s consumption carbon emissions are not expected to peak before 2035. Moreover, the distinct peaking pathways for generation and consumption across provinces highlight the imperative of regionally differentiated decarbonisation strategies.</p>