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<p>Arid-region oasis-ecotone-desert (OED) systems tightly couple human land expansion and natural constraints, yet parallel tests of change pathways and driver contrasts remain scarce. Using the Cele-Yutian oases (Xinjiang, China), we characterized oasis, ecotone, and desert dynamics during 1995–2020 and applied geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), with landscape change as the response, to estimate driver contributions and spatial heterogeneity. Oasis expanded persistently, desert contracted overall, and the ecotone declined then increased; transitions clustered along the oasis-ecotone and ecotone-desert interfaces, where change was most concentrated. Model comparisons showed that GTWR fit better for most compartment-period combinations and revealed spatiotemporally non-stationary effects. Oasis change was dominated by water-body area change (59.39–66.47%), followed by forest area change and population-density change. Ecotone and desert changes were more influenced by population-density change and became more concentrated late in the period (ecotone 52.46%, 51.29%, 82.01%; desert 36.01–42.25%), with notable contributions from cropland/forest area change (ecotone cropland 6.48–12.34%; desert 9.77–16.18%). These results support prioritizing ecotones and coordinating water allocation with land-use optimization to reduce boundary instability and ecological risk.</p>

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Spatio-temporal dynamics and differential driving factors of oasis desert landscapes in arid regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月2日

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  • Hongyang Chen,
  • Tong Liu,
  • Tiantian Qin,
  • Pengwei Zhang,
  • Shengjie Chen,
  • Shengtianzi Dong,
  • Hanyue Wang

摘要

Arid-region oasis-ecotone-desert (OED) systems tightly couple human land expansion and natural constraints, yet parallel tests of change pathways and driver contrasts remain scarce. Using the Cele-Yutian oases (Xinjiang, China), we characterized oasis, ecotone, and desert dynamics during 1995–2020 and applied geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), with landscape change as the response, to estimate driver contributions and spatial heterogeneity. Oasis expanded persistently, desert contracted overall, and the ecotone declined then increased; transitions clustered along the oasis-ecotone and ecotone-desert interfaces, where change was most concentrated. Model comparisons showed that GTWR fit better for most compartment-period combinations and revealed spatiotemporally non-stationary effects. Oasis change was dominated by water-body area change (59.39–66.47%), followed by forest area change and population-density change. Ecotone and desert changes were more influenced by population-density change and became more concentrated late in the period (ecotone 52.46%, 51.29%, 82.01%; desert 36.01–42.25%), with notable contributions from cropland/forest area change (ecotone cropland 6.48–12.34%; desert 9.77–16.18%). These results support prioritizing ecotones and coordinating water allocation with land-use optimization to reduce boundary instability and ecological risk.