Long-term urban resilience evaluation and its spatiotemporal evolution: a case study of the Yangtze river economic belt, China
摘要
Enhancing urban resilience is a critical imperative for sustainable global urbanization, yet accurately measuring it over long periods remains a complex challenge due to the limitations of traditional evaluation models. This study aims to address this gap by constructing a novel reference-object method specifically designed for the long-term and continuous evaluation of urban resilience. Methodologically, we integrate virtual reference objects within a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) framework to enhance the discrimination of evaluation values, overcoming the shortcomings of traditional static assessments. Applying this method to the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2011 to 2019, we utilized Dagum’s Gini coefficient, exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis (ESTDA), and an obstacle degree model to analyze spatiotemporal evolution. The results indicate a distinct upward trend in urban resilience across the YREB, characterized by a spatial gradient decreasing from downstream to upstream regions. Notably, while regional disparities have narrowed, a strong positive spatial agglomeration persists, and the primary impediments to resilience have shifted from economic constraints to governance factors. In conclusion, the proposed method demonstrates superior reliability in distinguishing long-term resilience dynamics compared to traditional approaches. These findings provide a robust methodological reference for resilience measurement and offer scientific evidence to support policy-making aimed at mitigating regional imbalances and overcoming governance barriers.