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<p>The accelerated adoption of prefabricated construction has reshaped the dynamics within its supply chain, heightening both competitive pressures and collaborative efforts among stakeholders. This shift carries notable consequences for carbon emission performance. To capture this complexity, the present study develops a supply chain model tailored to prefabricated buildings, integrating both cooperative and competitive behaviors among key participants—specifically, a general contractor and two prefabrication component suppliers. We employed differential game theory to analyze the optimal equilibrium strategies within four decision-making frameworks, namely Decentralized Decision-Making (DDM), Centralized Decision-Making (CDM), Vertical Cooperation (VCM), and Horizontal Cooperation (HCM). The main variables affecting the carbon emission reduction level of PBSC are discussed according to different cooperation behaviours. The results show that: 1) supply chain participants in the CDM scenario have the highest emission reduction efforts, while they will have better emission reduction levels in the HCM scenario; 2) as the coefficient of competition increases, the carbon emissions of the supply chain in the VCM scenario decrease and the supply chain profits increase; and 3) when the price of cap-and-trade regulation is low, the level of carbon emission reductions is highest in the HCM scenario. As the price of cap-and-trade regulation increases, the highest level of carbon emission reductions is achieved in the CDM scenario. This paper can develop an effective development strategy for PBSC members to co-operate in emission reduction.</p>

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Carbon emission reduction decision of prefabricated building supply chain under competition and cooperation: a differential game analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月27日

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  • Qiang Du,
  • Guiyan Tian,
  • Hongyu Zhu,
  • Libiao Bai

摘要

The accelerated adoption of prefabricated construction has reshaped the dynamics within its supply chain, heightening both competitive pressures and collaborative efforts among stakeholders. This shift carries notable consequences for carbon emission performance. To capture this complexity, the present study develops a supply chain model tailored to prefabricated buildings, integrating both cooperative and competitive behaviors among key participants—specifically, a general contractor and two prefabrication component suppliers. We employed differential game theory to analyze the optimal equilibrium strategies within four decision-making frameworks, namely Decentralized Decision-Making (DDM), Centralized Decision-Making (CDM), Vertical Cooperation (VCM), and Horizontal Cooperation (HCM). The main variables affecting the carbon emission reduction level of PBSC are discussed according to different cooperation behaviours. The results show that: 1) supply chain participants in the CDM scenario have the highest emission reduction efforts, while they will have better emission reduction levels in the HCM scenario; 2) as the coefficient of competition increases, the carbon emissions of the supply chain in the VCM scenario decrease and the supply chain profits increase; and 3) when the price of cap-and-trade regulation is low, the level of carbon emission reductions is highest in the HCM scenario. As the price of cap-and-trade regulation increases, the highest level of carbon emission reductions is achieved in the CDM scenario. This paper can develop an effective development strategy for PBSC members to co-operate in emission reduction.