<p>Accurately understanding the status and dynamics of the carbon budget in urban systems is essential for analyzing carbon cycle processes and their drivers. Using net carbon emissions as the core indicator, this study examined the evolution patterns of carbon budget across various types of representative cities. Informed by the above findings, we proposed a theoretical framework for urban carbon-budget resilience. A measurement model that integrated carbon budget stability and disturbance intensity, drawing on the Tapio decoupling model, was developed. This model was applied to 364 cities in China and showed strong internal consistency and robustness. The results revealed that although disturbance intensity continued to rise, the overall deterioration of the urban carbon budget was moderated. More cities began to exhibit stronger carbon-budget resilience. Economically developed cities tended to have fewer cases of UHCR-I and more of MCR-VII. Core Cities consistently exhibited a reduced share of UHCR-I across all stages. However, their resilience fluctuated during 2016–2023, marked by a drop in LCR-IV, indicating ongoing challenges in emission control. Conserve Cities demonstrated relatively balanced carbon-budget resilience over time. While most cities demonstrated high stability in carbon budget, those with low to moderate resilience were mainly concentrated in North and Central China. Emission growth was the primary driver of typological instability in resilience, underscoring the key role importance of future emission control. The resilience concept provides a novel perspective on the stability and adaptability of urban systems under emission-related disturbances, supporting carbon mitigation and climate policy efforts.</p>