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<p>Quantifying the driving forces behind ecosystem service (ES) supply-demand mismatches is critical for sustainable regional management. However, traditional assessments often rely on aggregate indices or single-service indicators, which mask the synchrony of changes and structural interactions between multiple services. To address this gap, this study introduces the Multiple Ecological Supply-Demand Ratios Intensity Index (MESDRI). Unlike conventional metrics, MESDRI quantifies the synchrony of change magnitude between service pairs, serving as a diagnostic tool to distinguish between coupled and decoupled systems. Using the Fen River Basin (2000–2020) as a case study for water yield, carbon sequestration, and grain production, we integrated MESDRI with Bayesian Networks (BN) to identify key drivers and optimize spatial patterns across multiple scales. Results reveal that while the average supply of grain and carbon increased, the demand for water yield surged disproportionately, intensifying regional mismatches. Crucially, MESDRI analysis identified systemic change zones in both rapidly urbanizing centers and mountainous conservation areas, which were governed predominantly by climatic (Precipitation) and socioeconomic (GDP, Population) drivers. We also found that model optimization accuracy significantly improved at larger spatial scales (3&#xa0;km and 5&#xa0;km) compared to the 1&#xa0;km grid. This study presents a novel framework that moves beyond simple surplus/deficit accounting, offering a structural perspective to identify regions requiring holistic, multi-objective management versus those suitable for targeted interventions.</p>

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Identifying intensity and drivers of ecosystem services supply-demand matching: spatial pattern optimization in fen river Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

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  • Xiaojian Wei,
  • jin Cai

摘要

Quantifying the driving forces behind ecosystem service (ES) supply-demand mismatches is critical for sustainable regional management. However, traditional assessments often rely on aggregate indices or single-service indicators, which mask the synchrony of changes and structural interactions between multiple services. To address this gap, this study introduces the Multiple Ecological Supply-Demand Ratios Intensity Index (MESDRI). Unlike conventional metrics, MESDRI quantifies the synchrony of change magnitude between service pairs, serving as a diagnostic tool to distinguish between coupled and decoupled systems. Using the Fen River Basin (2000–2020) as a case study for water yield, carbon sequestration, and grain production, we integrated MESDRI with Bayesian Networks (BN) to identify key drivers and optimize spatial patterns across multiple scales. Results reveal that while the average supply of grain and carbon increased, the demand for water yield surged disproportionately, intensifying regional mismatches. Crucially, MESDRI analysis identified systemic change zones in both rapidly urbanizing centers and mountainous conservation areas, which were governed predominantly by climatic (Precipitation) and socioeconomic (GDP, Population) drivers. We also found that model optimization accuracy significantly improved at larger spatial scales (3 km and 5 km) compared to the 1 km grid. This study presents a novel framework that moves beyond simple surplus/deficit accounting, offering a structural perspective to identify regions requiring holistic, multi-objective management versus those suitable for targeted interventions.